Barraco Barner, tweets, Ukraine, Sarah Palin and Nukes

President Barner's got a lot to think about

As always I am running a little behind the rest of the world and I didn't see the already infamous Gemma Worrell tweet until today. If you haven't seen it here is the wording:

Why is our president Barraco Barner getting involved with Russia, scary

This tweet has gone world wide and has been used by some commentators as a metaphor for "Dumb Britain."

Let's be honest it does look like the comment of a bimbo especially when you factor in that she is a twenty something beautician. Stereotypes, media portrayal of working class Britain and the failings of our education system come out screaming.

It is, ultimately a storm in a tea cup that plays to some of the nastiest elements of the human psyche. Firstly the girl made a typo... If someone recorded all the stupid things I've said or written over the years (including the zinger "Bus drivers make up their own routes") then I'd be open to world wide ridicule at least twice a week. Let it go.

Does it say anything about our nation's education? No.

People make spelling mistakes all the time or blooper. OK so Obama isn't our president but the sentiment is just as important. It is showing a young woman taking an interest in current events rather than which celeb is shagging who or in hair and make up - let' give her points for trying and phonetically  spelling the name.

Is it about class? About standards? Stereotypes? - Really? This is what you're going to focus on?

Let's not worry about the obvious and celebrate that current events are being spoken about by stereotypical groups that wouldn't normally bother with them.

Instead of worrying about this girl, who has no influence, and has said something that sounds stupid and let's look at what Sarah Palin has said in a speech to fellow Republicans;

Mr President, the only thing that stops a bad guy with a nuke is a good guy with a nuke

This is a really scary and stupid thing to say. I thought the old attitudes of the Cold War were well and truly gone. It wreaks of the Cuban missile's crisis and sincerely worries me that there are political figures out there that think that pointing ICBMs in the direction of Moscow and leaving the red button  out still there in this world. I mean G. W was a bit of a dunce but not even he considered nuking Baghdad!

The really, really, REALLY scary thing about this whole Palin debacle is that I can picture Putin shrugging his shoulders at her comment and ordering his missiles turned the other way. Palin is an idiot but Putin is a calculating and cold. He would push the button when Khrushchev wouldn't.

Yes, it was amusing to laugh at someone's twitter mistake but let's also not take our eye of the ball and look seriously at some of the idiotic things that are being said by those who have influence and worst still have bigger fools agreeing with them.

Mike Hancock or Dr Fox - whose was the greatest security risk?



Mike Hancock MP



As the enquiry into Mike Hancock's affair with suspected Russian Spy Ekaterina Zatuliveter continues it hit the headlines of a few newspapers today. The Metro's headline read;

THE MP AND THE "SPY" WHO LOVED HIM

The story goes on to detail how Ms Zatuliveter is fighting deportation due to espionage charges and that Jonathan Glasson, who was the Government official at the Special Immigration Appeals Commission stated:

[Ms Zatuliveter] reporting from Londongrad [and she had] eyes and ears in the House of Commons.

Dear God!

If this was forty years ago it would be a scandal that rocked the Capitalist world. A Russian, clearly a KGB operative using a prominent MP to gain access to information and power in Parliament!

This is what good Fiction is about or scandals that rock the Government. Remember the Profumo affair and Christine Keeler?

However fiction is what this seems to be. The more I read the story the less I believe that she is a spy.

As you read Ms Zatuliveter and Mr Hancock's back story the more you can see that it is nothing short of an extra marital affair and the only reason people are screaming SPY is because the girl is Russian.

They met in 2006 in Moscova where he attempted to bed her and she declined. They met a few months later and an affair started. Eventually she relocated to Britain to study at Bradford university but the affair continued with them meeting at the weekend.

In Novemeber 2006 she began working as an unpaid intern for two or four days a week. She was given security clearance to work in the Houses of Parliament and then moved later to being a full time assistant on £250 a month. As his intern and assistant she had access to his parliamentary emails - all above board because Interns often answer enquiries from constituents and help manage an often over worked MP's work load.  So is she a security risk just from that?

The affair apparently ended in March 2010. So.... she was attached to a Liberal Democrat MP between 2006-2010 and saw his emails... What were we doing in that time period?

Yeah that's right we were sitting in opposition and the party looked like it had absolutely NO prospect of affecting Government policy as New Labour held sway. She would have been better off tacking herself on to a Labour or Conservative MP!

It is claimed that Mike Hancock asked questions in parliament about renewing Trident and the renewal of Britain's Nuclear defence! Clearly something that would be of interest to the Russian Spymasters in the Kremlin.

But the renewal of Trident or scrapping of it, was a major part of our manifesto and so his questions in parliament are actually/probably to do with party politics rather than Russian military intelligence.

Ms Zatuliveter also had a fling with a NATO official and a diplomat in her time.

And?

She used to work as a chaperon for foreign diplomats in Moscova, it is possible. Also should we look at her past relationships and jump to these sort of conclusions? There is no proof.

All the actions are easily explained.

Dr Fox, however, has been cleared by enquiry as allowing his friend Mr Werrity actually into the Ministry of Defence and on official visits with the Defence Minister as posing no "risk to security".

But he was Minister of Defence with an unknown man, without security clearance wandering around the MoD building, possible access to secret documents, going on business trips with the Minister abroad.

Doctor Liam Fox MP



Yet question marks remain as to what Mr Werrity actually saw or did. I'm sure he is also innocent of any wrong doing and that all actions were just an oversight as Dr Fox allowed his friend to visit him at work etc. However has he been Russian and Ms Zatuliveter been English would Mike Hancock be on the front page still?

I doubt it.

Of course if History is to teach us anything it is that when it comes to espionage trust no one. Christine Keeler was British and supposedly passing secrets, Kim Philby and the other Cambridge spies - British and passing information to the Kremilin before defecting.

I'm not passing judgement on either case, merely making suggestions and making comparisons. If anything in my opinion the Dr Fox case is far more serious than the Hancock case and it is only because the girl is Russian that it is even news worthy.

Restructuring Libya. - Warnings from History.

When military backed dictatorships or autocracies collapse there are many dangers that face the emerging country. As the state collapses in on itself the rebels need to start thinking about establishing a new state. This can lead to some serious problems.

1. Rebel unity.

When the Bolsheviks took power in 1917 a counter revolution started almost immediately, culminating in the Russian Civil war with many factions with only one aim... The removal of Lenin's government. The factions; Iudenich, Denikin, Kornilov and Kolchak (the white Generals), The Green Russians (anarchists), Britain, France, USA, Japan and Finland (foreign interventionists) were often at odds with each other. Had the struggle gone against the Bolsheviks then these divisions would have been more and more obvious.

The anti Gaddafi movement is just that. There rebels are made up of pro-democracy groups, maybe some Religious extremists who would like to see a stronger state, ex military officers who may wish to overthrow any fledgling government and install themselves, Communists - who knows?

The various groups will come to a head when their goal has been achieved as they did after the liberation of Iraq when rival tribal groups rediscovered their old dislike for one another. This too could happen in Libya.

Any restructuring will have t be well thought out and if they are going to have democracy then a "Provisional council" will have to be exactly that - Provisional and hold elections within a year – Not carry on like Kerenski’s Russian Provisional Government, indefinitely with out a real mandate which was ultimately one of its reasons for downfall.

As for Foreign intervention in the creation of government- I fear this must be kept at a minimal as it could be argued, quite successfully in some cases, that a puppet regime has been installed - especially if there is still a counter revolt underway. This is the main reason why NATO foot soldiers haven't been on the ground and only air support levelling the playing field. If any single state goes in and helps with the rebuilding (however noble their original aims) will be accused of moulding the new state in its own image and for its own benefit. Western aid will have to be completely in an advisory capacity, the UN would be the best bet for this rather than any individual state.

2. Removal of heirs.

If Gaddafi is caught or commits suicide then the pro Gaddafi forces will rally around his successor, whether it is Saif or one of his other sons, or even a loyal officer with similar ideals. This may either be an overt continuance of the civil war, establishing an "alpine redoubt" defence and proving a thorn in a democratic government's side OR covertly, going "Werewolf" and carrying out terrorist strikes and vengeance attacks on a new government.

All heirs must be caught or go into exile to maintain the legitimacy of any successor state.

3. Problems of War crimes.

When Nazi Germany collapsed there were many people who responsible for crimes against humanity, war crimes, taking part in the regime's oppressive nature or worked for organs of the state. Himmler had said that the Allied forces would need the SS to provide order in the post-war power vacuum and that he as their head would be needed to help with the rebuilding. Although slightly delusional he was right. Post-war it would have been impossible to arrest and try everyone who had taken part in all of the above crimes and organisations. Germany needed civil servants, Police officers, bank managers, captains of industry even soldiers. The ring leaders were indeed rounded up and executed or put in prison. However many were not. All those soldiers who were in Einsatzgruppen and police battalions, executioners in the legal system, civil servants and even the SS officer who served at Auschwitz and worked out how much a single prisoner cost the state (from arrest to Gas chamber) and the net profit for the state, was only in prison for five years before release as he was an excellent bank manager and economist!!!

When Gaddafi's regime does collapse, many people are going to get away with crimes. There is no way to avoid it. The ring leaders, including Gaddafi and his sons, top military officers, Police/ secret Police officers will be caught and face justice but many will get away with it. The day after the civil war ends people will want their streets crime free, anarchy to a minimum, a working economy etc...

These things will need to be undertaken by organs of the state that already exist.

Another thing is that many ex military officers and rebels may have joined the rebellion as a way of trying to hide their involvement in previous crimes or actions or to gain leniency in future trials. Himmler certainly did.

So to Conclude.

Libya is about to enter a new phase, it is hopefully going to be a bright start and like Egypt and Tunisia a flourishing democracy will mean that everyone can benefit. However all state builders should be aware that there are pitfalls and perils that would derail their progress and could plunge Libya backwards, they just need to look to history and what has happened before and a clearer path will become apparent.