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| Defector: Mark Reckless. |
The news broke yesterday, whilst I was at a wedding, that Mark Reckless had defected to UKIP from the Conservative party. This was somewhat of a surprise to me but I really guess it shouldn't have
For sometime I had believed that although stridently anti-EU and having rebelled against Coalition line time and again, Mark Reckless was Conservative through and through but his position would have meant that UKIP would be unlikely to win in Rochester and Strood in 2015 and would do very little to dent his voter base.
I totally hadn't considered that he would defect.
been.
Apparently I wasn't the only one.
I've exceptionally mixed views about defection. Although it is noble to follow one's belief to whatever end it can have some pretty nasty ramifications. A long while ago I wrote:
It is a decision that no one should take lightly, a decision that should be thought through thoroughly and not rushed. After all... like [Benedict] Arnold, once you've left you can never go back and some bridges can never be unburnt, for you will always be a turncoat.
According to Mark's website he has thought this through extensively, something I can well believe (I had a similar experience once) and ultimately came to this decision. He lists these reasons in depth in his article but ultimately it boils down to electoral promises and frustrations that he could not represent the people of Rochester and Strood as a Conservative anymore.
My previous prediction for the General Election in Medway was for UKIP not to bother standing a candidate as Mark was pretty much in that ground anyway... However this defection is going to shift the dynamic a whole lot more.
Earlier today I saw statistics that suggested that Mark will get re-elected easily based on the percentage of people in the Medway Council area who voted UKIP. If I remember correctly that despite being true across the region it was not the case in the Rochester & Strood wards. These wards mostly voted Conservative.
So we could see the return of a Conservative MP rather than Mark's re-election?
Not necessarily.
The Conservatives in Medway have been divided between the Rainhams and the Rochesters for quite some time and this defection could be the tumbling of small stones that sets of an avalanche. Already Councillor Chris Irvine, who is exceptionally close to Mark and works for him at Westminster, has quit the Conservative party and according to his twitter stream, will be consulting the residents of his ward as to what they would like him to do. If more were to follow...
We could see a larger UKIP powerbase with vast local experience than expected in the old Cathedral city.
This could also be Labour's big chance. The Medway towns have been swing seats for some time and although I had postulated that Mark would come through unscathed that was before the right vote was completely bisected. Naushabah Kahn, the Labour candidate for Rochester and Strood, has been making ground recently. Feelings against the Coalition do run high across Medway and they may be enough for her to capitalise on it, especially for a local girl who is talking about the things that matter to the working person who doesn't care as much about the EU as they do the NHS or Immigration as much as they do cut services. According to Medway Labour's Press release Ms Kahn stated;
With such division in the Medway Tory party, it’s clear that there is only one choice in Medway for the progressive, fair vote and that is Labour. We have a 10 year plan to save the NHS, including the extra resource of 20,000 more nurses, 8,000 more GPs and 5,000 more careworkers. In Rochester and Strood, we have a choice between a Labour party that will save the NHS or a Tory party that is in a race with UKIP to the far-right
Usual Party stuff but it is a sentiment that will draw people in.
Who knows, all I can say is that Medway is about to become really interesting politically over the next few months and part of me really laments my retirement which starts as of tomorrow.
I hope someone is going to cover this properly.
Just as a postscript and returning to the Benedict Arnold post and burned bridges, there is a sense of betrayal among some locals, be it electorate that voted Conservative and suddenly find a UKIP foothold in their constituency, local Conservatives who have seen all their hard work in supporting Mark thrown away, and also colleagues.
Indeed Tracey Crouch, MP for Chatham & Aylesford was quoted as saying (and sums up the feeling for local Conservatives);
He looked me in the eye and promised me he wasn't going to defect. I feel very angry and let down.
As I write this I feel very disloyal, like a Benidict Arnold or a William Joyce. I think the time is coming for Nick Clegg to stand down as leader.
I should quickly state that I think he has done an amazing job as leader and raised the profile of the party a million times higher than it has been since the end of the First World War. He has led us into Government and has got many of our pledges from our manifesto straight into the law. Income tax level has been raised, pupil premium, tripple lock pensions protecting them, we've postponed Trident, helped keep the cuts humane(ish) and improved the amount of apprenticships just to name a few.
We are no longer a party of the shadows, the discontents, the weirdy beardy party... The guys with the "Give a quiche a chance" t'shirts. We are a serious party that has achieved and deserves support and our activists are out there trying to drum up support and getting it.
The problem is Nick and this is the hardest thing for me to write.
People on the doorstep are not ennamered with Nick. Ultimatly he could come up with the cure for cancer and bring World peace and the Tories would claim it was their move and Nick would still be criticised for the Tuition fees fiasco.
He is still hated for jumping into bed with the Tories and bringing them into power - even though Labour had really messed up the country and change was 4000% needed in 2010. He is blamed for the cuts (not George Osbourne or David Cameron strangely) and for pathologically lying (Which he didn't do). No amount of;
Yeah but we've done this...
is going to help and good, ney excellent candidates are likely to be left behind and a lesser or worse, UKIP, candidate will get in.
I was listening to the Lord of the Rings soundtrack (Yeah, I know - how awesome am I?) and was thinking about King Theoden of Rohan's comment of "It was not Theoden of Rohan who led our people to victory."
I got to thinking about the party as the kingdom of Rohan and Clegg as Theoden. Theoden was a good king during peace time and in the past wars, he was revered by all but then he fell under the spell of the evil wizard and let the kingdom fall into disarray and had to be saved by a better leader.
Our party is famous for its massive self destruction in 1916 that took almost a century to rectify and has had so many splits and factions in the past we cannot afford for it to happen again as this time it may be fatal.
As much as it pains me to say, Nick needs to step down around Christmas as part of a structured leadership move to allow the new person to get their feet under the table and begin fighting for May 2015. It would give enough time for the party to establish them and the new manifesto as well as have us standing up in Parliament.
I know mine is but one voice in a party of many and that there are those who are more voriferous in their attacks on Nick or in their defence of his position. Ultimatly I think it will come down to a motion at conference, I just think it wouod be better that Nick stood down rather than suffered the humiliation of a rebellion and ousting.
Benedict Arnold is one of the most maligned figures in History.
Having been a very able commander within the American Colonial army, performing heroically during the campaign in Canada and then again in combatting General John Burgoyne at the battle of Saratoga you would have thought him a celebrated hero.
However he will always be linked to the act of treason at Westpoint and the death of Major John Andre in 1780.
Vexed with the way that the Colonial cause was being conducted, a growing fear and concern with how the country was to run after England had been repulsed. As the war went on he felt he had been maligned and forgotten by the Commander in chief, so Arnold began to look to the British cause and it all became clear.
British victory was in everyone's best interest. By surrendering Westpoint to General Clinton or providing them with the means to take it easily meant the British could gain the upper hand in the New York sector of the war.
Of course his cunning scheme went astray and following the capture of Major Andre, the British officer who'd been Arnold's go between, he was forced to flee to the British fleet and was eventually carried back to London, never to set foot in the US again.
He was viewed with disdain by the Americans and British who saw him as a turn coat who had offered his services for money and rank. Traitor, turncoat and dishonoured.
In there lies a lesson for defectors.
Every cause can faulter, everyone loses faith at one time or another, it is only natural.
Then again some causes are just plain lost and nothing you do or any amount of hard work you put in will come to fruition. It is then that you need to ask yourself some searching questions about the course you are set on.
Take for example, a hypothetical defection from the Libdems to Labour and dear reader, please don't read too much into this.
Nationally you could never agree with Ed, you still believe in liberal ideals and the hard work that Nick et.al have put in (well most of it!) BUT locally they are the only opposition to a Conservative council that you think is mismanaging things.
Can you do what you said you would never do?
Of course it depends on your motivations. If election and power are your sole aim then, like Arnold, you will be seen for who you really are and treated accordingly.
If, at your heart, you do it to represent your community, to fight the perceived injustices, then surely that is a good thing?
Of course as long as you can swallow your principles for the local good, is it not just abandoning a sinking ship to try and achieve the same goals under a different banner?
Or is it better to stand on the deck as the water creeps up your ankle?
It is a decision that no one should take lightly, a decision that should be thought through thoroughly and not rushed. After all the second example should be respected more than the first though like Arnold, once you've left you can never go back and some bridges can never be unburnt, for you will always be a turncoat.
