My wager on the Brexit referendum

With the announcement that the UK is to hold a referendum all the political parties are drawing up lines.

The Liberal Democrats are united as part of the IN choice and will be joined (eclipsed) by elements from the Tories and Labour against UKIP, George Galloway and elements of Labour and the Tories.

For me it is a no brainer and the EU membership offers vast opportunities if we led and tried to reform it rather than follow the UKIP line of voting "No" to everything if they turn up at all. Also with my belief structure a united Europe with a strong Germany at the heart is always an appealing notion!

Any way I won't try and sway your vote (just yet) as this isn't today's scope.

My big question is why are we IN parties going to bother? Brexit will win hands down.

I caught a few minutes of Murnighan earlier and someone was comparing the two line ups and suggested the Out camp needed to work on their image and that got me thinking....

Yes, George Galloway (possibly the most hated person in British politics by politicians) is a liability, yes there will be infighting by Tories and Labour unhappy with being on the same platform and then there is the UKIP scion which no one wants to openly admit working with.

Ultimately though their disunity and infighting will not damage their campaign at all as the vote is all about the issue not how they go about it.

For years the British press has been filling their headlines with stories of Europe with not all of them true, after all stories of the EU investing in community projects, forming international police task forces to combat major crimes or getting rid of those pesky data roaming fees just doesn't sell papers as blowing up little stories into chaos.

In the last fifteen years I've seen British sovereignty under threat more times than in the fifty preceding years. We've had X million Poles, X million Romanians, X many Hungarians and now a wave of countless ISIL terrorists are coming via Greece and Turkey disguised as refugees all granted citizenship by Germany and allowed to come here to steal our jobs and benefits! The EU have attacked our Chocolate, our bananas need straightening, our laws, our way of life and their courts (which are separate to the EU) have over ridden the decisions of our judges on our crimes etc... Bastards.

Brexit is seen as the only way to stop these countless waves and raise the drawbridge guaranteeing British people their money and jobs for hard working Britons (Though I look forward to the waves of former unemployed fruit picking or manning the grills at MacDonald's), make Britain Great again and restore sovereignty to the country before returning it to its former glory.

There is such a web of half and untruths to fight through and deep seated fears that ultimately the "In" campaign have a veritable mountain to climb and the victory we're all smugly thinking isn't as achievable as we think (though I pray that it will be) and come the end of June we'll be saying good-bye to our European buds and isolating ourselves further.

This is all before you say "The Lib-" (usually when doors close or interest is lost). Farrage still has a lot of support from grass roots who think he can do no wrong.

I fear that it is so unachievable that I'm close to asking why bother? It isn't like the plucky Rebellion vs. the Empire with its Death Star - it's the same number of fighters vs five a Death Stars and a fleet of Stardestroyers... 

So confident am I in my defeatist prediction that I will make this wager - *if* the UK votes to stay In I will put in the Acknowledgments of my next book; "Thanks to Nigel & George for pulling a Porkins" 

Come on Britain... It's worth voting "In" for that!

Corbyn as leader is definitely a good thing!

A new direction for Labour under Corbyn?

In case you have missed the news Jeremy Corbyn has been elected as leader of the Labour Party and this is something to be celebrated.

Celebrated? Really Chris? Why would a LibDem be celebrating this?

A fine set of questions to which the answers are; Yes, really and it is a long complicated rant so buckle up....

Firstly, I am a big fan of democracy and political theory - it is one of my vices and I'm a HUGE fan of Hobbes "Leviathan". I studied the evolution of Political theory at university for a semester and found this evolution fascinating and for a time I flirted with Marxism. To be fair I worked for MacDonald's at the time and it seemed to be a fair leap.

Anyway - at this point I was ripe to be attracted to a strong Labour movement and the Labour Party there was just one thing in the way.... New Labour.

New Labour has always struck me as a Diet Tory movement which was geared to winning elections and that was it. Throw in my opposition to the Iraq War and other policies such as ID cards etc and I found myself realising that beyond my radical reaction to my employer I had no real socialist beliefs and that liberalism was where my heart truly lay.

However I have always maintained that the Labour party should be a working class party and that for me and many others it had long ceased to be that.

Can I back up this assertion?

Why yes.

The rise of third (and fourth) party politics is a massive clue to this. In 2010 the Liberal Democrats attracted a large amount of votes from people who were looking for something different rather than the two same old parties who seemingly offered us nothing different. In 2015 following the Coalition that saw us being lumped into the same boat as Labour and the Tories the working classes flooded to UKIP seeing Farage as someone new and out of the Westminster bubble. Indeed according to our intel, streets that had been historically Labour were turning to UKIP instead. Why? Because Farage seemed to be voicing the working family's fears and beliefs rather than Westminster protocol and edited press statements.

What has this got to do with Corbyn?

Jeremy Corbyn is of the old school of Labour, a genuine Left winger who will (hopefully) steer the party away from the middle ground and actually represent the working classes again. No more of this abstaining on key votes as they did under Harman recently. The Party membership are obviously vexed with this New Labour fad and want to return to their old core values, the values the party were founded on, the very values and voters who were that much more extreme than the Old Liberal party back in the 1920s that saw the party rise to prominance. This is the same shift again almost a century on.

Finally there will be a gulf between Right and Left which will give the voters something to get behind.

There have been a lot of smug Tory tweets claiming walkover in 2020 and that we are looking at another five year term of Conservative government based on today's Labour leadership result. I wouldn't be so sure... After all if Corbyn can steer the party left and actually start representing the working classes again then they will draw a massive amount of support away from UKIP (always a good thing) and if he stands on anti-austerity (and means it) then he will gain even more votes and we could see the rise of the Labour party.

It also means that dissatisfied centralists in the Labour party may come looking for a centre party and join the LibDems(?).

So what about Medway?

Well on the council level it is too early to say. Many people have predicted the Conservatives losing seats in the last two elections and they've still walked away with a massive majority. I think it is too early to say for 2019.

I will predict that Corbyn's tenure (if done right) coupled with the absence of Mark Reckless, will see the end of Medway UKIP's showing on the council and (hopefully) see a massive fall in their vote share across the wards.

For the LibDems locally it won't make that big a difference with us still campaigning on our strengths and strong work ethic.

As for the 2020 General election - it is way to early to call that... IF the right candidate (and my money is on Naushabah Kahn) is against Rehman Chishti then we could see a swing to Labour. Sadly I fear the same might be true in Chatham & Aylesford IF the right candidate comes along and the voters of Chatham go back to Labour rather than UKIP then not even Tracey's record could save her but that is a pretty BIG IF!!!!

Though these predictions are, as Joey from Friends once said; Moo ("Its like a Cow's opinion - it doesn't matter"). I stand by my belief that Labour will now return to its roots and represent its core supporters - the workers which can only be a good thing for British politics having a clear divide between Red and Blue.

Forrester's & Livingston Planning continued...

There are many times where an original text goes before an editor and is changed for numerous reasons and although I agree with changes I also feel I should post the original article in its original tone. Here is the text that went onto the Medway Libdems webpage.

---

This weekend there has been a furious response to Tony’s letter in the Medway Messenger regarding Planning Committee. They feel it is an unjust personal attack on and that events did not play out the way they are described.

First off the bat I should describe the planning issues.

Forrester’s Hall on Sturdee avenue had been abandoned not long after my daughter’s third birthday in May 2013, the caretaker said that when we booked the hall that it was for sale. Since then it has been boarded up and derelict. Neighbours on Sturdee Avenue and Valley Road had noticed that it had been used by local youths as a squat come drug den and has not only been vandalised but also set on fire. I was deeply saddened to have to report this to the Police myself back in January when I found it broken into and the level of damage inside. The property has been since been bought by a developer who is proposing to build four bedroom houses on the site. The big concern for residents on Valley road is that these new houses are set back on the land and will now be overlooking their gardens and back windows effectively compromising their privacy.

The second issue was the now derelict British Legion building on Livingstone Road which is likewise to be demolished and have houses built on it. The big problem with Livingstone road though is parking. Although to Council officials and enforcement officers will note that during the day time there is no excessive parking they will not notice that in the evening and weekends the pavement becomes impassable with cars parked upon it. It is something I have written about extensively on my blog and is a constant annoyance for families like mine who cannot pass the parked vehicles with a pram or indeed with my disabled daughter’s walking frame and we are forced to cross the road on the bend to get to an easier path. Basic road safety tells you that that is not a good idea and with the rate of knots that some people drive down Livingstone road it is only a matter of time before there is an accident. I raised my objection for the development based on a worry that there would be less adequate parking and that pedestrians like myself would suffer. It was a complaint echoed by other residents.

Both issues were discussed at length at the Valley Road PACT before the election in May and objections logged with the council before the deadline in April.

The big complaint that Labour have got is that no one told them and that they had not attended the meetings prior to the election and that the issues were not discussed after the election.

Firstly, the candidates would have known about the PACT meetings as the first meeting I attended was chaired by Gillingham North’s very own Pat Cooper of Labour, who was invited to subsequent meetings but failed to attend. I would have thought it would have been in the interest of any prospective candidate to attend such meetings and get a feel for their area and with the open nature of the forum I’m sure they would have been more than welcome. The other issue is of course the planning complaints were not brought up at the last meeting (the first since the election in May) as the deadline for lodging concerns had passed and it was “old business.”

Parking on Livingston road

Secondly; I find it hard to believe that the new Councillors didn’t have the ability to look at the upcoming planning proposals before the meeting on 30th June. All upcoming planning proposals were on the website with complaints/comments posted and would have been available to Councillors by officers beforehand. If, again, they had done their homework they would have seen what was proposed in their ward, what issues were raised and by whom and they would have had the ability to contact residents with issues.

There will no doubt be accusation of “Sour Grapes” because we/I lost the election in May but in all honesty I and the resident who helped Tony draft the letter and gave their approval, are just annoyed that genuine complaints have not been addressed because of seeming apathy.

I welcome any positive feedback from the Labour group answering these concerns.

---

There are a couple of criticisms that have been levelled that I should clarify.

There is a lot of history between the Medway LibDems and Councillors MacDonald and Stamp and I'm sure that there will be claims of personal attack and part of an ongoing hatchet job.this of course is untrue in my case. I joined the group after whatever happened happened and I can count the number of exchanges I have had with them on my hands.

I have no interest in what happened nor in continuing any perceived grudge.

The other thing is that I have been accused of hypocrisy for not lodging a complaint about not lodging a complaint about the Forrester's hall development - ignoring the one i put in about Livingston. Also that I am supposed to be representing my community.

Well first - I didn't lodge a complaint for the simple reason - I forgot. Working 39 hours a week, a 4 hour commute to London & back every day, three children and a ton of proof reading meant it slipped my mind. Had I been elected though I would have quit my job in London and I would have looked at the concerns on the planning application.

As for representing the community - I was not elected and do not pretend or attempt to represent anyone but the Sams family. Representing the community is your job Councillors.

I'm guilty of many things; Poor memory, putting the rubbish out in my pants and a t'shirt, loving Runaway bride and having a guilty love of the music of Taylor Swift but hypocrisy is not one of them. I was brought up with a strict moral code and belief in honour which I think has come out in my blogging - if someone does soomething good I'll commend them. If they do something bad I'll criticise no matter which party they are. I got into politics not because I wanted power or to be a councillor but to do good and help people, if I had wanted to be a Councillor as my primary goal I would have takne Vince on his offer and joined Labour back in 2012 or the offers I had to join the Tories... I am a man of principle

Take this on the chin and learn from it.

Enough of this Tories are bad with railfare BS

With my book deadline pushed ack to the end of the month and still a lot of work to do but I have taken ten minutes (odd) to question this latest Labour Tweet, the second of which I've seen in the last two weeks:

Rail season tickets in Chatham have gone up by 100% since 95. Tory complacency on economy as real pplfeel sting >> http://t.co/fkBTzUDAd2
— TrisOsborne (@cllrtrisosborne) March 18, 2015

Firstly I should state when it comes to rail fare I am completely neutral as I have been commuting for the last seven years and have watched my monthly Season ticket raise exponentially to the point that I am losing 33% of my wage which is somewhat unsupportable. It is something I have written about at length over the last five years feel free to browse.

I, like many commuters (the people that the tweet is aimed at in the hope of garnering support) know the history of the rising railfare.

The good ol' days of Cheap travel only 20 years ago!

Yes - the Tories privatised the railway. Was that a good move? Debateable. The people of Kent have had some bad franchises - Connex were awful and Southeastern, although debatably  *improving*, are still not a British company and a lot of their profits are being ploughed into the German railways and seemingly not into ours. Other franchises have been more successful on other networks. The reason for privatisation are at this exact moment beyond my memory and as mentioned earlier if it involves reading something that doesn't have a vessel sailing under a flag with an Iron Cross and Eagle on it then it is a waste of my time until the 2nd April.

The big point is that yes since 1994 the fare rise has gone up a significant rate but is it the Tories fault?

Let's consider who was running the country between 1995-2015. So John Major was Prime Minister up until 1997 (2 years) and the Coalition from 2010-2015 (5 years) which comes to 7 years of Conservative rule. From 1997-2010 we had 13 years of Labour Government in which the fares really started to go up with the introduction of RPI+3

Now when the government decided to construct HS1 from Ashford to St Pancras, you know that really expensive way to get to the wrong side of London that wasn't quicker than the other services from Medway (that's why the fast service to Victoria now stops at Meopham), you know the one that you can always get a seat on as it is too pricey? Anyway, they decided to spread the costs and so Labour came up with the escalator of RPI+3 (like they did for petrol) which ultimately is the Rate of inflation plus 3% so roughly your train fare would come up by 8% a year and they wrote it into the franchise contract so it could not be easily removed.

There was a fare freeze in 2010 (election year) I grant them. What did the Gillingham-Rainham MP do about it? Bugger and all as Paul Clarke (their candidate for 2015 for the same seat by the way) was a junior transport minister at the time. Thanks.

I'm not saying this government has been perfect either. Despite the remonstrations of Mark Reckless, Tracey Crouch and Rehman Chishti the government has done not much to improve it. Indeed the letter I received form the minister at the time Theresa Villiers basically was the written version of a shrug and a meh.

Yes prices have still gone up (though not always at the full RPI+3) this government but it hasn't been as bad. In fact for a percentage break down of 2004-12 which is telling check this out.

Basically to effect a movie/Star Wars metaphor ->

John Major's government came up with the idea of making Prequels to the popular Star Wars trilogy an arguably good/bad idea but sadly we got Phantom Menace.

Tony Blair/Gordon Brown's regime came up with the idea to make Phantom Menace that bit more appealing and make more money to fund episode II so they came up with the idea of the highly marketable Jar Jar Binks which ultimately made everybody's life gradually more unbearable.

Cameron's government have basically said Well it is made now  and we're releasing this but we'll throw in some more R2D2 will that make it better? No ah well....


So what are the solutions? I have no answers the only thing I can say is that;

1. This is a problem that ALL governments, both Labour and Tory, are responsible for this mess and something needs to be done and agreed on by Parliament as a whole before everyone but the rich are priced off the railways.

2. This kind of patronising political comment not only insults commuters, who are painfully aware of how we've got to this level of pricing, and is so opportunistic it actually stings my eyes to read it.

I had responded to a similar tweet a week ago asking about RPI but got no response. There is no need for this kind of BS and it is why people are turning away from blame the others style of politics of the big parties and turning to *Shudder* UKIP...

Right back to work, I have 6000 words on SMS Konigsberg to write before Saturday.

Rochester and Strood by-election results

Well, after a very long night and a couple of hours snatched sleep I thought I’d write about what the heck happened yesterday.

Firstly the UKIP victory in the Parliamentary By-election. To be honest it was no big surprise. A month ago when it was announced there was a belief that it was all flash in the pan and that Mark Reckless would be handed an embarrassing defeat at the hands of his former masters or even Labour.

As the time has gone on the amount of UKIP activists, doners and support has grown (or been bussed in) and Rochester has been worked hard. This was met by the Tories and Labour who have had MP after MP down and even the Prime Minister. This was never going to be a normal election.

Ultimately the majority attained was nothing to significant. With a turnout of over 50% Mark only managed to get a majority of 3000 over Kelly Tolhurst (his majority back in 2010 was 10,000). The Tories were celebrating this last night. They know that come May when UKIP will be spreading their activists and money over a larger area of North Kent, especially if Farage is going to stand in Thanet, that Mark will see this lead eroded.

What does this mean for Medway politics in the local election (held on the same day as the General)? Well it could lead to one of two outcomes.

The first is that this victory may buoy up the local party and they will make a valiant charge snapping up council seats drastically altering the shape of the local authority. This is their aim.

The second is that with the removal of resources could force them to make tough decisions. As Mark’s lead is fairly tenuous they may be forced to through what resources they have available to keep him at the cost of local councillors.

This of course is fairly hypothetical we’d have to see.

Needless to say that the Tories are stung and will be coming for them.

As will the Labour party. Naushaba Kahn fought a tough campaign with a lot of support from the local party and Westminster elect. If anything there was a belief that this was Labour's chance to regain the swing seat with the usual right of centre voters torn between UKIP and Tories.

Although they worked hard and attracted a lot of support they failed to make much of a media imprint and ultimately ended well shy of Mark scoring only 6.713 votes.

This has massive ramifications for Ed Miliband and the Labour party, not necessarily the hard working local party.

Labour's main definition at the moment is not the Coalition and let's face it the Tories (and we've signed off on them or are guilty by association) have pushed through some really nasty stuff - badger culls, ATOS, cuts to services, tuition fees... the list is exhaustive and all along, week after week we have to suffer Ed saying he and Labour would never agree to any of this and Ed Balls promising that Labour's economic plan (whatever it is) was much better.

With the extreme views of UKIP and the unpopularity of the  Conservative Government you would have thought the swing seat may have swung back to Labour. The fact it didn't suggests another two things.

The first that voters saw the Conservatives with Kelly Tolhurst's Local girl, local issues campaign as the best alternative and didn't want to split the anti UKIP vote or, and perhaps more alarmingly for Labour, that there is a serious problem with their message.

The whole situation must be even more concerning for the Conservatives. They threw the Kitchen sink at UKIP and although performed really well coming short by a small margin in both the parliamentary and the Hoo Peninsula ward by-election (Ron Sands (CON)  got 1965 against Chris Irvine's (UKIP) 2850) they still failed, despite the resources flung, to make it closer.

As I've said, this could be a temporary blip or it could be the opening of the flood gates. Already some of the old stalwart supporters of the Medway Conservatives have already jumped ship and it might be the beginning of a landslide. There is also a general malaise against the local Tories and should UKIP erupt like a tumour with a handful of Tory Councillors going purple between now and May it could change the face of Medway's Council.

Now with heavy heart I turn to the Libdem result.  It looks awful. Geoff Juby got under 1% in the parliamentary and I gained just over 1% in the Hoo by-election. Geoff's share of the vote collapsed by 15% of its 2010 share. It is being hailed as the worse performance of the Liberal Democrats in a By-election ever...

Now this will sound like a lot of excuses but here is the truth.

Geoff worked hard, and I mean damn hard with a dedicated team of local activists with a few visits from Westminster but this was not Eastleigh. This was not to be our battle ground, not a target seat this time around and Clegg et al did not appear with armies of Libdems busing in from across the country bank rolled by HQ and shadowy donors. This was a local battle led by a local candidate backed up by local activists.

This was always going to be a battle between the Tories and UKIP.

As for me. I am ecstatic about my 1% after all I did absolutely no canvassing or campaigning. Hoo was never a seat we could have won, nor did we have any presence out there. As many regular readers know my son was born on 10th October, had his first operation on 13th and I have been busy with my family settling in George. I'm amazed I got that many votes by doing nothing and I would like to thank everyone who did vote for me, next time will be definitely different.

The two great stories to come out of this election was firstly -

Britain first only got 56 votes. This, although depressing that they got more votes than some of the Independents is uplifting (I got more votes than them in one ward by election!!!) because even the Monster raving loony party did better than them! Truly a laughing stock.

The other is the results of the Green party. They fought a good campaign with a good candidate and scored a respectable fourth place with (1692 votes) in the parliamentary and local (314 votes). This was a great result for them and I've already sent my congratulations via Twitter.

Not to take anything away from them but the rise in support may be because they are now the non-UKIP protest party.  Ten years ago that was the Libdem party (though my Mum always voted Green!) but with the Coalition we've become part of the establishment so people tend to vote for a non-governmental party. If you don't want UKIP then the next best choice is Green. We could see some serious gains by the Greens next year if UKIP continue to develop in the towns.

I know a lot of this is all speculation bolstered with educated guesses but there is so much that could happen that at this moment in time (with four hours sleep) I'm not prepared to tie my colours to the mast until February or even April.

I will however close with a warning however to the other parties. The results of last night belay how strong we are in our wards, getting rid of the Libdems in Medway is going to be a tough proposition.

Mark Reckless' defection

Defector: Mark Reckless.

The news broke yesterday, whilst I was at a wedding, that Mark Reckless had defected to UKIP from the Conservative party. This was somewhat of a surprise to me but I really guess it shouldn't have

For sometime I had believed that although stridently anti-EU and having rebelled against Coalition line time and again, Mark Reckless was Conservative through and through but his position would have meant that UKIP would be unlikely to win in Rochester and Strood in 2015 and would do very little to dent his voter base.

I totally hadn't considered that he would defect.
been.

Apparently I wasn't the only one.

I've exceptionally mixed views about defection. Although it is noble to follow one's belief to whatever end it can have some pretty nasty ramifications. A long while ago I wrote:

It is a decision that no one should take lightly, a decision that should be thought through thoroughly and not rushed. After all... like [Benedict] Arnold, once you've left you can never go back and some bridges can never be unburnt, for you will always be a turncoat.

According to Mark's website he has thought this through extensively, something I can well believe (I had a similar experience once) and ultimately came to this decision. He lists these reasons in depth in his article but ultimately it boils down to electoral promises and frustrations that he could not represent the people of Rochester and Strood as a Conservative anymore.

My previous prediction for the General Election in Medway was for UKIP not to bother standing a candidate as Mark was pretty much in that ground anyway... However this defection is going to shift the dynamic a whole lot more.

Earlier today I saw statistics that suggested that Mark will get re-elected easily based on the percentage of people in the Medway Council area who voted UKIP. If I remember correctly that despite being true across the region it was not the case in the Rochester & Strood wards. These wards mostly voted Conservative.

So we could see the return of a Conservative MP rather than Mark's re-election?

Not necessarily.

The Conservatives in Medway have been divided between the Rainhams and the Rochesters for quite some time and this defection could be the tumbling of small stones that sets of an avalanche. Already Councillor Chris Irvine, who is exceptionally close to Mark and works for him at Westminster, has quit the Conservative party and according to his twitter stream, will be consulting the residents of his ward as to what they would like him to do. If more were to follow...

We could see a larger UKIP powerbase with vast local experience than expected in the old Cathedral city.

This could also be Labour's big chance. The Medway towns have been swing seats for some time and although I had postulated that Mark would come through unscathed that was before the right vote was completely bisected. Naushabah Kahn, the Labour candidate for Rochester and Strood, has been making ground recently. Feelings against the Coalition do run high across Medway and they may be enough for her to capitalise on it, especially for a local girl who is talking about the things that matter to the working person who doesn't care as much about the EU as they do the NHS or Immigration as much as they do cut services. According to Medway Labour's Press release Ms Kahn stated;

With such division in the Medway Tory party, it’s clear that there is only one choice in Medway for the progressive, fair vote and that is Labour. We have a 10 year plan to save the NHS, including the extra resource of 20,000 more nurses, 8,000 more GPs and 5,000 more careworkers. In Rochester and Strood, we have a choice between a Labour party that will save the NHS or a Tory party that is in a race with UKIP to the far-right

Usual Party stuff but it is a sentiment that will draw people in.

Who knows, all I can say is that Medway is about to become really interesting politically over the next few months and part of me really laments my retirement which starts as of tomorrow.

I hope someone is going to cover this properly.

Just as a postscript and returning to the Benedict Arnold post and burned bridges, there is a sense of betrayal among some locals, be it electorate that voted Conservative and suddenly find a UKIP foothold in their constituency, local Conservatives who have seen all their hard work in supporting Mark thrown away, and also colleagues.

Indeed Tracey Crouch, MP for Chatham & Aylesford was quoted as saying (and sums up the feeling for local Conservatives);

He looked me in the eye and promised me he wasn't going to defect. I feel very angry and let down.
 

Labour bluster over Medway LibDems

Some years ago I saw the last Deutsche wöchenschau, the Third Reich's newsreel dated March 1945. Whilst Messerschmitt fighters took off from waterlogged agricultural fields and streams of exhausted boys and old men in a mixture of uniforms marched past the camera the narrator pronounced ultimate victory would be theres. The Luftwaffe were blasting American planes from the air and the Russians were being turned back at the Oder. Whether the German people took anything from it is debatable but we know it was just noise.

Medway Labour have a lot riding on this election. The Coalition has not always been popular in low income areas where Tory led cuts have injured local services. The normally unassailable Medway Conservatives suddenly look vulnerable, especially as the locals are on the same day as the General election. These marginal seats could swing red again and I believe Gillingham & Rainham will.

Ever since tuition fees Medway Labour have been predicting the death of the Medway Libdems with an alarming frequency but I can assure you that there is still life in them. There are regular Focus deliveries, canvassing, street letters and campaigning just in a smaller area than Labour. Our membership is up and hardly flocking to Labour as they have suggested - I'm aware of only one in the last two years.

That is their weakness. They are pressing on all fronts to get the Tories out locally and in Westminster. Across Gillingham & Rainham, Rochester & Strood and Chatham & Aylesford. Even with Union funding their resources are not endless and they are stretching themselves thin. Although an all out offensive in Gillingham South may turn it red (I'll be moving) they will not get Watling ward. An all out offensive in Gillingham south would come at a cost of taking other fronts like Chatham & Aylesford where a strong MP might do enoug on personal performance over the popularity of Coalition policy.

The other problem Labour are facing is UKIP.

The common opinion is that UKIP are the bane electoral bane of the Tories but we've found that Labour are losing just as much support where as LibDem supporters are less likely to go Purple. Farrage is seen to be more in touch with the common person and their concerns rather than the Tory lite esq Milibamd led Labour. Seats in urban areas like Chatham central, Luton and Wayfield and even Gillingham North are fairly undecided and require shoring up before the election - further blunting their offensive capability. They also have to worry about their own seats from the weirdly popular Medway Tories. Rumour has it that Chris Irvine is on the offensive to take Labour's bulwark Cllr Murray's seat!

Labour, although set to gain ground along with UKIP who are becoming rapid favourites following unparalleled support across the estuary but it may be tempered and not the sure victory they are hoping and predicting. They'll also find the last bastions of LibDem seats a hard nut to crack and the red tide may be halted.

Let's just hope that come May I don't look like King Canute!!!

Labour's Youth tax

Today has been a day of mild confusion for me. I've read the link so kindly given to me by Medway Labour with Ed's announcement of the removal of jobs seeker's allowance for under 21s. It says a lot but also not much.

I agree that the benefit system is bloated and needs redress. I know that the budget is shafted and there are cuts that have gone the wrong way such as the cuts to the Coastguard. I also agree that we need to get people out of the benefit trap.

There is, however some serious issues with Labour's new policy. Overall unemployment is down (last I checked) and the overall number of Apprenticeships are up with Coalition policies to encourage large companies to take on people. However there is, naturally, a saturation point where no more can be taken on.

I take the point that we can't all be astronauts and that sitting on the dole waiting or the England call up or for Simon Cowell to snap them up and actually getting off your arse and working and there should be incentives.

My concerns are that not everyone will be able to get into this training. As I said earlier, there is a saturation point and ultimately if we train say 500,000 electricians a year - where are they going to go? People are working later in life to top up their near worthless pensions. This means posts are not opening up as much. Trade jobs such as Electricians, plumbers, carpenters also require a building projects and housing projects, something that is very slow to get off the ground especially with Councils not willing to invest in a lot of regeneration projects of the dire urban centres. The same is true for so many other careers, the Labour motion is trusting that the job market will be able to support all of these apprenticeships and training and that they will have job spaces for the qualified at the end of it. Seems like an awful gamble with our young's lives. This isn't the late 1930s where the population was small enough and an economy that could support growth and workers in factories. Even then my grandfather was forced to become an apprentice and into the army by his father and he always resented the choice being thrust on him. 

I fear as well that with such a large workforce the employers can be "competitive" with their wages i.e. pay them less. If ten people with similar qualifications apply for the same job you hire the one who will work for less. It is good business. 

It also makes me wonder about the fate of older workers in society. In a perfect world no one is ageist and that you get a job on your merits. In reality though employers make business decisions and are more likely to hire a you g back rather than an older applicant who may have family commitments.

It seems to me, as an observer, that between the major parties, things have got really rough for the young. The Coalition took away the education fund, tripled tuition fees to screw up further education, successive governments have made it harder and harder to get a house so now they're stuck living with their parents and now we're taking away the safety net of job seekers allowance and forcing them to pick a trade.

It would be better to put the money into the education system to support A'levels or towards Further education rather than bribing people into a career and life choice or find yourself cut off by the state.

It is just so illiberal, ill thought out and patronising that... I just can't get behind it.

Labour must think you're all stupid





This kind of thing really grinds my gears.

Those of you who know me or are regular readers of this blog will know that I'm, somewhat naively, a fan of good Democracy and the democratic process. So it will come as no surprise why my gears are so well and truly ground.

Also before I start I should say this is not aimed at hard working Labour activists, councillors or MPs but the party machine and those who use the following technique on the doorstep - you know who you are!


Unless you have been living in a cave for the last few months you'll know there is an election on Thursday for some local authorities (not Medway) and more importantly the European Parliament. 

The LibDems (at least on a local level) have been campaigning for the merits of the EU over Grand Isolation which UKIP seem to espousing. National politics has not been used unless brought up by the voter.

This election is not about the cuts.

This election is not about Tuition fees.

This election is not about the Coalition.

This election is not about Nick Clegg or David Cameron.

So imagine my confusion when I saw a tweet with ten reasons to vote Labour on Thursday. (here) with a link to the Labour page with Ed's pledges for what Labour would do if they won the next election. 

Want a reason to vote Labour in six days’ time? Let’s not stop at one, here’s ten: http://t.co/caCiKSwdw6
— Iain McNicol (@IainMcNicol) May 16, 2014

Clearly it would be argued that this meant the General election next year and it is a mere coincidence that this list has appeared now at this election.

Can this behaviour be just attributed to a small dirty tricks brigade? 

Well, no.

I've seen a lot of tweets locally about the toxic nature of Clegg and it makes me wonder how much campaigning on Europe vs. National policy there has been but that is just supposition.

Who sent the original tweet? Was it an activist trying to cause confusion? It was some guy called Iain McNicol - the General secretary of the Labour party - surely he would think he knew what elections were taking place on Thursday?

This is not the first time that this has happened either, indeed shadow minister Chuka Umunna tweeted (back in may 2012 here)

Cameron is running a heartless and hopeless government #voteLabour today for growth, jobs and to relive the squeeze on you and your family.

Which was interesting as it was Local and mayoral elections with no impact on Westminster what so ever!

It is little wonder that candidates are secretly venting their frustration at Ed et al. Local PPC and Councillor, Tristan Osborne was unfortunate to get caught on tape out lining his concerns with leadership etc.

It is telling that a PPC selected for one of the top 101 target seats against a formidable and capable Tory MP (Tracey Crouch) is showing these sort of concerns.

 You can view the article here

How can they appeal to the average voter if they can't even tell the truth about what the election on Thursday is for? Or have any policies on Europe? 

If I cannot trust them on these two fundamentals how can I trust them with pledges or my taxes?

Same old Labour - Same old... Y'know

As those who follow me on Twitter will know, my days of being actively involved in politics are looking like they may soon be over (more on that later) and part of me is relieved.

As the election campaigns really set in here in Medway and ground work is laid down for the general & local elections next year the uglier and nastier things get.

As predicted the lines between national and local politics have become blurred and the three remaining LibDem councillors (as well as the standing candidates) are being blamed for supporting the Coalition nationally.

Their ministry of Propaganda has began churning out tweets regularly saying things like; 

"Medway Libdems supported the trebling of tuition fees"

"Medway Libdems support the Tory privitisation of the NHS"

"You can't trust the Libdems"

What a load of hogwash. I could easily turn round and say:

"Medway Labour supported the illegal invasion of Iraq"

"Medway Labour supported the Fuel escalator & RPI on rail fare that robbed hard working commuters."

"Medway Labour supported the reckless management of the economy that pissed the nations money down the drain"

"You can't trust Labour with your money"

I know full well that none of their (or my) statements are true. From our end there was a lot of anger at Tuition fees. As we have no MP we as a group tend to look more at local Medway issues and what we can effect. Also as we don't have an MP we cannot get them to vote a certain way. I have, however written to our incumbent MPs on a few topics requesting information and clarification on a couple of topics but that has mainly been as a resident!

I'm also tired of seeing messages saying all the LibDems will be wiped out, Labour will defeat your MEPs, take your wards and remove you. I feel like a tumour festering at the heart of Medway ready to lanced. I often wonder will my wife will come home from work and find I have disappeared into the "The Night and fog" (check out Nacht & Nabel decree on wiki for the reference).

So, I find myself asking why? Why are they targeting us in this way and not their arch nemesis Darth Cameron?

I have come up with a theory. 

Since the Coalition began Labour under Ed Miliband have defined themselves as simply "Not the Coalition." 

Cameron could hold up a lump of coal and Ed would say it was white. They say they wouldn't do things but they have little in the way of alternatives. The Libdems are seen as the weaker part and so they look to extend their majority by assimilating our seats. After all Labour has been moving from the left for the centre ground for the last couple of decades and left leaning liberals will be tempted to vote Labour over the seemingly right leaning liberals.

The other problem is Labour are actually hemorrhaging supporters to UKIP. A lot of working class families who gave up on Labour last time and who are still not convinced are looking at UKIP as saviour or as a protest vote. They know Labour screwed the economy and failed to deal with immigration and Europe, the Coalition have done little to salve that and only UKIP are saying they will deal with them. Where can they get voters??? Oh yeah, Libdem supporters.

It amused me that they wasted a PPB on how Clegg is a joke but still haven't given us an alternative, where is Ed talking about the EU or tackling UKIP? Does he or his party have an opinion? 

I'm feeling better off out of this childish point scoring and blowing smoke for votes. I got involved in politics to help people and my community and I feel disheartened that a few feel the need to resort to these levels to win votes. 

If my departure wasn't already dictated by events beyond my control I'd stand and fight for what is right.

As it is, I'm almost relieved to let the children play and I can redirect my energies to something more worthwhile.

UKIP are most welcome in Medway

Blue and Red will get dented by UKIP

No - I haven't defected, nor have I banged my head and gained one of those epic life changing concussions where one loses all grasp of sanity.

For once in my life there is an iota of reason in something I think...

The Medway Tories have held the Medway towns in their iron grasp for too long. They have an arrogant outlook that means they are right at all times and surely anyone who is against them is against the whole towns!?! (see my posts on Medway Knockers)

Indeed when the Liberal Democrats dared to stand against the wasteful and unwanted City of Medway proposal we were denounced as traitors. When the people of Strood stood up against the moving of their library, or the people rejected the privatisation of the specialist Dementia unit at Nelson Lodge what did the ruling council do?

Bugger all.

The Council carried on with what it wanted to do regardless as in Councillor Chitty's words: A consultation is merely the Council informing the public of its' intentions.

Their massive majority means that they can bulldoze through anything they want - be it dodgy investment in Rochester airport or perhaps voting to become a part of Austria (something I could get on board!) They are even able to keep the inept like Cllr Wickes at the helm of education two years after he should have bowed out despite a consummate amount of public pressure!

As the race for 2015 and the local elections begin the various parties begin their march. The Tories are looking to fortify their position, maybe gain some more in Watling ward and play on their (our) record in Coalition.

Cllr Maple is preparing his Labour troops for a sweeping victory in swing seats, parliamentary seats and indeed wipe the Medway Libdems from the face of the Medway political map.

We are planning on holding our seats as well as modest gains in Watling, Rainham North and Gillingham North at the cost of Cllr Cooper or Stamp following their defection from Independent group to Labour. The latter one is of particular interest as I'm in the mix for that.

So why are UKIP welcome?

Firstly - it could cost the Conservatives quite a few seats as their vote divides in places leaving the way open to another opposition party, maybe Labour, maybe us depending on the area. The Tory's massive machine could lose up to a third in the enfilading fire from the right and protest votes - big hitters like Jarrett and Chambers could find the Tory heart lands dissolving in two.

Secondly - street campaigns and statistic collecting have shown the majority of people switching to vote UKIP have come from the Conservatives but also from Labour rather than from us. This is good as where as the big two need to go out and rally their voters and try and win back hearts and minds we just need to cling to our loyal voters and sway a few soft liberals - even soft Tories who are tired of this council's arrogance or are pro-Europe and fear the knee jerk drift right that may come from Cameron's leadership post '15.

This UKIP phase may just be flash in the pan, as we were once (if you listen to our critics) and if one of my friends stated once that those who say they'll vote UKIP are less likely to vote anyway then ultimately I'm wrong and another blue tide will sweep this Tory autocracy back into Gunwharf in 2015 having learnt nothing and the peoples of Medway can look forward to another four years of darkness with only Labour and the Libdems trading a few seats here or there.

Of course if I'm right... and let's face Gentlemen and Ladies of the Medway Conservative party... you've got to be looking at the Purple peril and thinking it is a possibility.... how prepared are UKIP? What are their strengths? Can they divide you?

Of course we'll have to wait and see in 2015 and I can only hope they do grow in the Conservative heartlands like the tumorous growth they are.

Chatham PPC Tristan Osborne's Misrepresentation on housing?

Yesterday's appearance by local Councillor and Parliamentary Candidate for Chatham & Aylesford
Tristan Osborne on a local BBC politics programme caused a stir on Twitter for all the wrong reasons.

Although I agree with the sentiment that the housing ladder is impossible to get onto for the majority of people of mine and Tristan's generation ( I think I'm 3 years older) and many of my friends who I went to Uni with have struggled and even had to get 90% mortgages with their parents acting as guarantors.

I was lucky - I guess - we are a small family and my granddad had divided his estate between my sister and I. I was able to get a 50% mortgage and it has kept our payments down so I've been able to support my small (and growing) family.

For others, it is a lot harder.

So what went wrong?

Well... Tristan made a bit of a sweeping generalisation and said... well here's what he said.

So why is that a problem.... Well there is an implication that he has struggled to get on the housing ladder with the rest of Generation Rent and is one of those that suffered as well.

Local Citizen Journalist Ed Jennings quickly dug out his home address from the Medway Councillor's register of interests (available on the Medway Council webpage) and then hopped on Zoopla to get an estimate value of the house.

It isn't up to me to reproduce Tristan's home address, the information is out there but I know how I'd feel if someone blogged my home address.


Ultimately the value of the terraced house came to approximately £306,942


As I understand it this property is owned not rented (I'm open to correction!!!) and the accusation from local Conservative Councillor Chris Irvine is that he has misrepresented himself to the viewers and voters.

I personally believe that it was a sweeping generalisation that people of our age are having trouble and was not meant to be a deliberate misrepresentation.

However I think that Tristan should clarify this.

The Strood library move protests and Medway Council

One of the hot topics to hit the Medway Political scene at the moment is the proposed move of Strood Library from its current spot on Bryant Road, where it shares a building with the popular Community Hall and has parking for up to ten cars, to the main high street in a rented retail outlet that is currently home to a Community project.

There has been a lot of angry protests online, in local newspapers and indeed at the Full Council meeting on the 23^rd January where placards were held and the disruption caused by the blunt and arguably rude answers received from the Conservative benches caused an outbreak of civil unrest which halted the meeting – twice – and resulted in the ejection of most of the Public Gallery. One of the causes was Councillor Chitty’s dismissal of the 5000 strong petition that was handed in objecting to the move because not all the signatories lived in Strood, in fact some were from Higham and Maidstone, overlooking the fact that residents of Higham may still use Strood library.

The Council has been working on the creation of Community Hubs within the Medway towns for quite some time. In the Council’s Cultural Strategy (2009-14) it proposes that all Library and Council services should be housed in central locations and one building making the Council that much more accessible. [1] This has been a process that has been on going and debated at Gunwharf openly for some time. The Council plans for Strood Library have it put in a much more accessible location near really good parking and on the bus routes so that the elderly, who are the Library’s key demographic, can get there more easily and anyone who needs the Hub can just nip in whilst doing their shopping in the centre of town. All very compelling reasons to have the Library move.

So why the objections?

There are several on-going arguments about the relocation and what it would mean for Strood which the Council has argued against. Firstly that the Community project, which does a lot of good within Strood, is being evicted has been turned over because their lease has run out with the Private landlord. It is unfortunate but the Council argue it is coincidental and they should be rehoused within five to six months. Secondly, Councillor Stephen Hubbard of the Labour group points out on their website that the Tories are “milking the cash cow” of parking in the centre of Strood and that Labour don’t want the original building pulled down for high density housing as Strood is already too overcrowded. [2] This is despite the fact that the Library has only ten spaces and whose key demographic would tend to use Public transport for free rather than drive and that no one has stated that there was a plan to redevelop the original site.

Medway Council has said that it will keep the local Community hall, the only one of its kind in Strood, for the youth groups and programs such as Judo, Ballet, talks, children’s activities and any other local Community group that wanted to use it which is a welcome move however it does beg the question about why move the Library out of that building and add another expense to the Public purse by renting a smaller shop space.

Another issue that has been raised is that of Public safety. Kim West raised warnings of at least eight crashes outside the proposed location since August last year (3 KM Medway Extra 29-1-14) and that one car almost went through the window. This has been treated as circumstantial and dismissed by Councillor Doe at Full Council who focused on the revitalising effect the move will have on the High Street and the shops.

The biggest problem has been that the Library’s move has been symptomatic of the way the Conservative Council has dealt with things recently. They haven’t listened to the public in the consultations, in fact Councillor Chitty responded at Full Council that Consultations are for informing the community of the Council’s decisions and not for helping to formulate a final decision. This was the same for the airport redevelopment and for the elderly care homes at Nelson’s Court and Robert Been Lodge. The basics of Consultation, where objections and problems can be aired and discussed before the council makes a decision are being totally disregarded and that is what has angered the protesters and the wider politico audience within Medway – the simple fact that they aren’t and won’t listen. If they did they might have taken into account the fact that two days a week the Strood Carparks are taken over by Market stalls effectively nullifying the extra parking, listened to concerns from people like Kim West, or they would have taken the petition and revaluated that this was clearly an issue the people of Strood feel strongly about rather than rubbishing it in Full Council.

Although this is an important topic for the people of Strood and has compelling arguments for both sides of the debate but the reason it has attracted so much anger and resentment is that the Council has, yet again disregarded what the public have to say and have yet again ploughed on regardless and handling the public.

Democracy week at MidKent College

Manning the stall

About a month ago the Medway Liberal Deomcrats were approached by MidKent College's Student Union President Matt, along with other parties who have a Parliamentary members - Us, Labour, Conservatives and the Greens, and asked if we wanted to attend the College's Democracy week.

The idea was, as part of the Bite the ballot campaign to get teenagers to get involved in politics and registered to vote. I spoke passionately at the last Exec meeting saying that we should go, so passionately in fact that I was volunteered to do it!

With a clutch of leaflets and having absorbed a good chunk of the Record of Achievement in government I marched down to the College unsure of what to expect but with trainers on in case I needed to make a quick get away from an army of angry students who felt betrayed about tuition fees.

What I found was a group of young people who were interested and open to what was said by the parties present (the Conservatives weren't there at all) and some were even up for debating!

Although my table was somewhat Spartan, as I was bank rolling it myself as I had been unable to go to HQ and plunder free gear, I was missed by a quite a few people who were drawn in by the much brighter Labour stall who had a mountain of free stuff and biscuits (If only I'd brought Haribo!!!), I did attract some attention. 

It was good to talk to people who have a genuine interest in things and debate with those who were willing to debate. Some had already made up their minds, others were keen to learn more from all of us before making an informed decision. The most important thing was it got people thinking and challenged preconceived ideas. 

Even better than that it got people registered and both Labour and I signed people up to our parties. 

The future of politics is looking grim in this country as every day people are rightly or wrongly casting any ideas of voting aside. The parties are all the same, you can't trust the Party leaders, they're all liars and in for it for themselves... Without voters there can be no change for good or ill and the number of them are dropping away..

It is only by having events such as these that gets people engaged and thinking and more importantly - Voting!

I look forward to the next time... and I will have to dig up some free stuff!

My annotated text of Nick Clegg's Spring Conference speech

As always I mercilessly rip Nick's speech from Libdemvoice and post it here - sorry guys - and every time I plan to annotate or tell you what I've taken from it and promptly fail to do so.

Not this time!

They're more notes - a stream of consciousness and reaction to what was said.

Here's Nick's speech from Stephen Tall's Article with my notes in white scattered throughout... enjoy

---

Since I became the Deputy Prime Minister I have had the privilege of spending a bit of time representing Britain’s interests in other parts of the world.

I have visited Latin America and Asia to boost exports. I have been to Africa, where we are building better education systems as well as helping fight corruption, poverty and disease. I have travelled to different parts of Europe and the United States to promote British trade.

And while each trip varies from the last, there is a thread which runs through them all: you get to see Britain through other people’s eyes.

Everywhere I have been – every nation around the planet – has its own story about Britain.

On a trade mission to South Korea I paid my respects at a war memorial at the bottom of a hill where, during the Korean War, British soldiers – heavily outnumbered – fought for three solid days to hold back North Korean and Chinese forces.

It is a battle that every single South Korean schoolchild learns about. Had we given up or been defeated, it could have cost their grandparents the war.

For Mexico, Britain is the first European country to have officially recognised their independence following their liberation from colonial rule. That means something to them.

In Colombia Britain is the nation that built their first railways.

Lynne Featherstone and I were in Ethiopia, for whom Britain is now the first member of the G8 to have met the decades-old promise by rich countries to spend 0.7% of our national wealth on aid for the developing world. Something we have long argued for and this Coalition has delivered.

So wherever you go one thing is clear: people don’t listen to our country out of some nostalgic deference to an old power. They listen because of who we are. Because of the things we’ve done. Because of the leadership we continue to show. And that makes me incredibly proud.

(The UK has moved on from it's old Imperial state, one that some members of the Right think we still hold and is now a key player in the world helping other nations rather than dictating. The world's nations need to work together to overcome problems and poverty together not raise the drawbridges and dream of a past that has gone.)

I love Britain.

I love it for all its contradictions.

I love that we are as modest as we are proud.

I love the way we can cherish our traditions yet innovate relentlessly, churning out one ingenious invention after the next. The telephone, the steam engine, the jet engine, the world wide web; the same nation that came up with stainless steel is now developing graphene – the strongest material the world has ever seen. Oscar winning visual effects; cutting-edge design; theatre, fashion, music, film – you name it, we do it, and we’re up there with the best.

I love that a country capable of extraordinary pomp and ceremony can still retain a spiky irreverence towards its establishment. A country where we line the streets waving our Union Jacks wildly to welcome the arrival of Prince George, and the next moment we’re chuckling at Private Eye’s front page: ‘Woman Has Baby’.

I love that we insist on queuing when we go abroad, even when the locals don’t.

I love that the BBC and NHS are known and respected across the planet.

I love that our cities are home to every race, religion, colour and language in existence.

I love Miriam telling me that the feeling of freedom you get in Britain simply doesn’t exist anywhere else.

I love that the shipping forecast is listened to by insomniacs of all ages, right across the country, miles from the sea.

I love how excited we get at the glimpse of any sun, insisting on staying out in our t-shirts and flip-flops – even when it’s obviously still cold.

I love living in a country synonymous with human rights and the rule of law.

I love that it was British lawyers who drafted the European Convention on Human Rights and a British Prime Minister who helped launch the Single Market. And I enjoy reminding my Coalition partners that it was a Prime Minister from their party at that.

I love that we do respond – the cliché is true – to every problem no matter how big or small with the same thing: a cup of tea.

I love that, wherever you go in the world, you’ll find football fans obsessed with the Premier League.

I love that we are a family of four different countries, each with their own characters, traditions and good-natured rivalries. And that’s why I want to see – we all want to see – Scotland stay in our family of nations later this year.

I look at what’s happening in places like Russia, where the government is effectively criminalising homosexuality, and I love that Britain is a place where you can be gay and proud – and now you can get married too.

Above all I love that, while we may be an island, we have always looked beyond our shores. Throughout our history, when we have seen trouble in the world we haven’t just looked the other way; we haven’t just crossed to the other side of the street; Britain doesn’t peer out at the rest of the world and shrug its shoulders. We are always at our best when we play our part.

(Britain has got a lot to be proud of, both in its history, outlook and the way we deal with things. There is a lot going for us and things on the world stage that we can get involved in and actually make a difference too for the better but that means we should be internationalist in our focus and not inverted and constantly looking inward)

This summer marks the centenary of the First World War. One hundred years ago hundreds of thousands of British troops headed into a conflict from which many of them would never return. When it ended my grandfather, not long out of school, climbed onto the roof of Westminster Abbey and watched the survivors come home – bloody, bruised and broken by the things they had seen. He told me that, in spite of everything, he was desperately upset that he hadn’t been called up to the front: because he passionately believed that to be a British soldier, defending our values of liberty and peace, was the most noble thing you could be.

Years later he married a woman who had herself come here to avoid conflict and revolution: my grandmother. She escaped Russia during the revolution, crossing Europe with her family and eventually settling in London. For her Britain offered a place of stability and safety. At a moment of great upheaval, this country welcomed her in and let her call it home.

There are few nations as open-minded and warm-hearted as ours. Smart, funny, compassionate Britain. Always changing, always evolving Britain. Humble enough to understand that we must work with others. Confident enough to lead.

For me it is these qualities that make this nation great – these great liberal qualities. Not some sepia-tinted memory of Empire. Not some stuffy parochialism dressed up as patriotism. (Yep- this idea of Empire that still haunts political circles, the idea that we can still do things on our own. We don't have an Empire we can rely on economically anymore. We have to trade with other states)

In the 21st Century, in a highly competitive, fluid and fast-moving world we hold our own because of our ability to embrace the future rather than cling to the past. It is our ability to look forward and outward and our capacity for reinvention – in other words our liberalism – that ensures this small island remains a giant on the world stage.

The question – one of the biggest questions of our time – is how we protect the liberal values of this nation.

Six years ago we suffered an unprecedented cardiac arrest in our banks.

This wasn’t just a recession. It was a shattering collapse of the basic assumptions by which successive governments had run our economy since the Big Bang.

This wasn’t just a downturn. We were a nation plunged into uncertainty as the thumping heart of our economy ground to a halt.

And you have to remember: even before this happened a quiet crisis of confidence was already creeping over developed economies like ours. Global power, money and influence have been shifting from West to East and from North to South for years. The previously fashionable view that the world would automatically slide towards greater freedom and democracy now feels presumptuous and naïve. Within our lifetimes America will no longer be the world’s biggest economy. It will be China: an authoritarian state.

Taken together, in societies across the Western world, these experiences have created an entirely understandable but dangerous urge to turn inwards. An urge to reject the new or unfamiliar and to shun the outside world.

If anyone doesn’t believe it, just glance across the Channel at our European neighbours, where a number of extremist parties are on the rise.

In Greece’s last parliamentary election the Golden Dawn Party secured 18 MPs. They ran on an anti-immigration platform. Their slogan? ‘So we can rid the land of this filth’.

Hungary’s Jobbik Party now has 43 MPs, one of whom has called for a register of Jews who he claims ‘pose a national security risk’.

In Bulgaria, Ataka makes up 10% of the National Assembly. One of their MPs has reviled Syrian refugees as ‘terrible, despicable primates’.

In the Netherlands Geert Wilder’s PVV party is polling at around 18%. They have called for the Koran to be banned, comparing it to Mein Kampf.

Front National. Around 21%. Their leader, Marine Le Pen, has compared Muslims praying in the streets to the Nazi occupation of France.

(Nationalism/racist parties have existed through Europe over the last century. It was not a coincidence that the Nazi Occupation forces in Europe were able to round up "Undesirables" of all ilk's as their was a stream of those who believed in the same anti-Semitism. In areas of occupied Russia and Baltic states the locals came out and killed the Jews before the first German Soldier arrived. There were even elements of the British establishment who supported Hitler's ideals as well.

These trains of thought have never gone away and with their perceived "Muslim threat" their perceived evil/untermenschen are Muslims or Eastern European immigrants.)

These are not far flung places. This is our backyard. The forces of chauvinism, protectionism and xenophobia have been emboldened. And there is no doubt about it: the fight is now on for the future direction of our continent.

We are lucky. Thankfully we do not have the same extremism here in the UK. But that’s not to say the fight isn’t on for the future of our country too.

An ungenerous, backwards looking politics has emerged in Britain. The politics of blame has found an acceptable face: it wears a big smile and looks like someone you could have a pint with down the pub. So I’m drawing a line in the sand. I am going to defend the tolerant and modern Britain we love, and I am going to start by showing people what’s at stake at the upcoming European elections: do you want Britain in Europe, or out?

That’s the real question in May. One party wants out. Another is flirting with exit. The other lot don’t have the courage of their convictions on this – they’re saying nothing at all.

The Liberal Democrats are now Britain’s only party of IN. The only party out there explaining the clear benefits of Britain’s place in Europe. The only party giving people the facts.

IN because Europe is our biggest export market and vital to British jobs. Because pulling up the drawbridge is the surest way to wreck our economic recovery.

IN because in the fight against climate change, and in a world where some of the biggest players are also the biggest polluters, Europe’s nations can only make a difference if we work together.

IN because cooperation between our police forces is essential for catching the criminals who cross our borders. Crime crosses borders, so must we.

IN because Britain stands tallest in the world when we stand tall in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.

This isn’t about some starry eyed affection for the EU – of course it needs reform. But you can’t change it with one foot out the door. You change it by taking your place at the table – which is where you protect Britain’s national interest and promote our values too.

How else would we, right now, be making our presence felt against Vladimir Putin’s Cold War aggression in the Ukraine?

Otherwise we'd be just shaking our fingers at them going "We won't tolerate that for much longer..."

The EU is a global economic superpower. By standing shoulder to shoulder with our European partners we have the clout to defend not just our own interests, but the interests of our continent as a whole.

So, for all these reasons, I’m IN.

Forget the lazy assumption that, in the court of public opinion, the eurosceptics will automatically win. There is nothing automatic about election results. A few months ago, when I asked people to take to Twitter to tell me why they’re IN, they did so in their thousands. It was our most successful online campaign ever.

There are plenty of people out there who don’t want anger. They don’t want bile. They want jobs. They want our country to have influence. They want opportunities. Ultimately they want hope.

This is true, in my opinion many Euro sceptics are suffering from the same thing we did with the Yes2Av campaign. We were loud, we were vocal and congratulated ourselves that we were right but we were also in the minority and couldn't see it over our loud voices.

And that, Liberal Democrats, is what it all comes down to. Hope. It’s the oldest dividing line in politics – hope versus fear – and it’s back.

We talk a lot about reducing the deficit, fiscal consolidation, bringing down public sector debt, increasing GDP, creating private sector jobs. But in the end what we’re really talking about is giving the British people the confidence to once again look to their futures with hope.

That’s how you lead a nation through difficult times. That’s how you hold a country together when its citizens are feeling the pressure. And that’s what the last four years in government have been about.

There is still a long way to go and many people are still feeling the squeeze. But after a period of grave uncertainty, the British people can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

I hope that makes each and every one of you feel proud: there would be no recovery without the Liberal Democrats.

No recovery if we hadn’t decided to enter into coalition in order to provide the country with strong government.

No recovery if we hadn’t held our nerve and stuck to the plan.

No recovery if we had allowed the Coalition’s economic strategy to be solely about cuts. Sorting out the nation’s finances is essential but equally as important is investing in the foundations of lasting growth.

The unprecedented Treasury support that will transform Britain’s roads and rail.

The world’s first Green Investment Bank.

The billions of pounds spent on businesses across the country.

The million more young people who are now qualifying as apprentices.

Don’t let anyone airbrush out our role. (Because the will and the Tories are trying to!) Thanks to the heroic efforts and sacrifices of millions of people we have been able to pull this country back from the brink. Under extraordinary pressure we have achieved extraordinary things. And no matter what our critics say, when the history books are written they will say that, most extraordinary of all, the country was put back on the right track by a party which had never been in government before but which had the guts and the courage to do what it took.

And now a different challenge awaits.

We’ve been in emergency mode for the last four years, but that is slowly changing. If this parliament has been about a rescue, the next will be about reconstruction and renewal.

If we are truly ambitious for our country, Britain’s future cannot be like its past.

Successive governments relying on an overheated financial sector; presiding over a wildly imbalanced economy where the gap between rich and poor grew; where the North fell further and further behind the South.

Successive administrations jumping from one set of public service reforms to the next and Whitehall just seemed to carry on regardless as more and more power was sucked up to the centre.

I don’t want us ever to go back there. It cannot be right that the country goes through all of this pain only to end up where we started when it all went wrong.

Things have needed to be changed in this country for quite some time and there are still on going issues of North/South divide and a need, in my opinion, to build things rather than rely on the city. An economy based on the construction and export of goods is stronger than speculative banking. We were a nation of Ship builders, famous vessels like Titanic, Lusitania, Queen Elizabeth and war ships like Hood, Belfast and Dreadnought - we could be again.

In this coalition we have begun to turn the page, but the real test will come in the next parliament – when government will have to show whether or not we have really, genuinely, learnt from the mistakes of the past.

And I simply do not believe that our opponents have. I simply do not believe that they are up to this task.

Left to their own devices what are they offering the British people?

Profligacy. Economic incompetence. A bloated and cumbersome state. Politicians who think that all they need to do to prove themselves is posture against business. A leadership desperate but unable to break free from the grip of its Union paymasters. A party that cannot be relied upon to keep the economy safe; that wants us to put them back behind the wheel even though they still won’t admit how badly they got it wrong.

Or how about widening inequality. A remorseless shrinking of our public services. A party that claims we’re all in it together and yet refuses to ask the wealthy to pay even a penny more in tax towards the on-going fiscal effort. A party which will instead single out one group – the working age poor – for especially tough sacrifices. £12bn worth of especially tough sacrifices, from people who are trying to work their way out of poverty and who we should be helping stand on their own two feet.

A weak economy. An unfair society. If it all sounds depressingly familiar it’s because most of us have lived through it all before. Two parties encumbered by the same old prejudices; straitjacketed by the same old ideologies. And whichever way you look at it, left or right, if either of them get into government on their own, they will drag Britain in the same direction: backwards.

The flip flop of Red/Blue since the 1940s has left the UK constantly going over the same territory politically and economically again and again. We have to move on.

No. That’s not my Britain. That’s not the Britain I love. And I am not going to sit back while either of them sweep in and leave this nation diminished and divided because they still don’t understand what makes our country great.

Liberal Democrats think of that when you’re out campaigning in the crucial coming weeks – in your wards, in your communities, in your regions for our hardworking councillors and our excellent team of MEPs.

When I tell you that we need to get back into government again – protecting Britain from one party rule – this is why:

Because we are the guardians of a modern, open and tolerant Britain.

Because we are the only party who will not ask the British people to choose between a stronger economy and a fairer society. They don’t have to. They can have both if we make our shared mission enabling every single person to get on in life.

Because we are the only party with the imagination and ambition needed to ensure Britain draws a line under some of our worst times with our best qualities intact.

In government again the Liberal Democrats will continue rewiring our economy so that our banks are the servant and not the master. So that, instead of fake booms and reckless consumption, we invest in growth that is balanced and sustainable, which stretches across every corner of Britain and which conserves our natural resources too.

That is how we embrace a better future rather than repeat the mistakes of the past.

We’ll finish the job of balancing the books, but continuing to spread the burden fairly, as we have been in this government – giving Britain a stronger economy and a fairer society too.

The future, not the past.

We’ll continue correcting the imbalance in our tax system, so that it doesn’t just protect the wealthy but properly rewards work.

And, yes, that means that in the coming Budget Danny Alexander and I are pushing to take the Liberal Democrat income tax cut even further than we had originally planned in this parliament.

We are about to hit the target that was on the front page of our manifesto: raising the personal allowance so that no one pays a penny of income tax on the first £10,000 they earn, saving over 20 million people £700. Now we want to go beyond that, taking the total tax cut to £800.

And if we’re in government again we’ll go further still: no one paying a penny in tax on the first £12,500 they earn.

Wow! That is a significant boon - how many working poor will be lifted out of tax altogether?!

Fairer taxes. The future, not the past.

We’ll create an education system that, from toddler to graduate, allows our all of our children to rise as far as their talents and efforts will take them, irrespective of the circumstances of their birth.

The future, not the past.

We’ll transfer ever more power to our cities and communities so that they can drive their own destinies and we break Whitehall’s grip for good.

The future, not the past.

We will ensure that this country rises to the challenge that will define the 21st Century: playing our part in the fight against climate change, for the sake of our children and the planet we leave behind.

The future, not the past.

And we will live up to our greatest traditions by keeping Britain engaged, outward facing, a heavyweight in Europe and a leader in the world.

If this sounds like the Britain you want, the Liberal Democrats are the party for you.

Between now and the election my aim – our aim – is to build a coalition bringing together all of the liberal-minded, liberal-hearted men and women who love the Britain we love – and who want a party prepared to fight for it. That’s the coalition I care about. A coalition of all the people who want to keep this nation open, tolerant, compassionate and strong.

So to the people out there who may not have voted for us before: it doesn’t matter, that’s the past. What matters now is the kind of country you want to live in. The kind of nation you want us to be.

Open not closed.

In not out.

Great Britain not little England.

Forward not back.

Hope not fear.


The future not the past.

If you have faith in this country, if you believe in Britain’s values, if you still want this incredible island of ours to keep punching above our weight and shaping the world so that it is a better place, put the Liberal Democrats back in government again – let us protect the Britain you love.

I thought that Nick has hit the nail on the head. It is a good speech and one that reminds me why I agreed with Nick in the first place, why I am proud of him as our party leader and that I am in the right party for me.

If I wasn't in the party I would still be voting Libdem as my family has done quite well out of the Libdems in government with 15 free hours of nursery for the kids, the income tax break has almost lifted my wife out of taxation and halved mine giving us more money at the end of the month.

It would be easy for the nation to turn inwards and revert back rather than face it's problems however hard they may be. Change has to happen for us to survive as a nation and to help those in need. Let's do it, whether you vote Libdem or agree with Nick or not, we need to pressure our political leaders to actually make this come about.