Rochester and Strood by-election results

Well, after a very long night and a couple of hours snatched sleep I thought I’d write about what the heck happened yesterday.

Firstly the UKIP victory in the Parliamentary By-election. To be honest it was no big surprise. A month ago when it was announced there was a belief that it was all flash in the pan and that Mark Reckless would be handed an embarrassing defeat at the hands of his former masters or even Labour.

As the time has gone on the amount of UKIP activists, doners and support has grown (or been bussed in) and Rochester has been worked hard. This was met by the Tories and Labour who have had MP after MP down and even the Prime Minister. This was never going to be a normal election.

Ultimately the majority attained was nothing to significant. With a turnout of over 50% Mark only managed to get a majority of 3000 over Kelly Tolhurst (his majority back in 2010 was 10,000). The Tories were celebrating this last night. They know that come May when UKIP will be spreading their activists and money over a larger area of North Kent, especially if Farage is going to stand in Thanet, that Mark will see this lead eroded.

What does this mean for Medway politics in the local election (held on the same day as the General)? Well it could lead to one of two outcomes.

The first is that this victory may buoy up the local party and they will make a valiant charge snapping up council seats drastically altering the shape of the local authority. This is their aim.

The second is that with the removal of resources could force them to make tough decisions. As Mark’s lead is fairly tenuous they may be forced to through what resources they have available to keep him at the cost of local councillors.

This of course is fairly hypothetical we’d have to see.

Needless to say that the Tories are stung and will be coming for them.

As will the Labour party. Naushaba Kahn fought a tough campaign with a lot of support from the local party and Westminster elect. If anything there was a belief that this was Labour's chance to regain the swing seat with the usual right of centre voters torn between UKIP and Tories.

Although they worked hard and attracted a lot of support they failed to make much of a media imprint and ultimately ended well shy of Mark scoring only 6.713 votes.

This has massive ramifications for Ed Miliband and the Labour party, not necessarily the hard working local party.

Labour's main definition at the moment is not the Coalition and let's face it the Tories (and we've signed off on them or are guilty by association) have pushed through some really nasty stuff - badger culls, ATOS, cuts to services, tuition fees... the list is exhaustive and all along, week after week we have to suffer Ed saying he and Labour would never agree to any of this and Ed Balls promising that Labour's economic plan (whatever it is) was much better.

With the extreme views of UKIP and the unpopularity of the  Conservative Government you would have thought the swing seat may have swung back to Labour. The fact it didn't suggests another two things.

The first that voters saw the Conservatives with Kelly Tolhurst's Local girl, local issues campaign as the best alternative and didn't want to split the anti UKIP vote or, and perhaps more alarmingly for Labour, that there is a serious problem with their message.

The whole situation must be even more concerning for the Conservatives. They threw the Kitchen sink at UKIP and although performed really well coming short by a small margin in both the parliamentary and the Hoo Peninsula ward by-election (Ron Sands (CON)  got 1965 against Chris Irvine's (UKIP) 2850) they still failed, despite the resources flung, to make it closer.

As I've said, this could be a temporary blip or it could be the opening of the flood gates. Already some of the old stalwart supporters of the Medway Conservatives have already jumped ship and it might be the beginning of a landslide. There is also a general malaise against the local Tories and should UKIP erupt like a tumour with a handful of Tory Councillors going purple between now and May it could change the face of Medway's Council.

Now with heavy heart I turn to the Libdem result.  It looks awful. Geoff Juby got under 1% in the parliamentary and I gained just over 1% in the Hoo by-election. Geoff's share of the vote collapsed by 15% of its 2010 share. It is being hailed as the worse performance of the Liberal Democrats in a By-election ever...

Now this will sound like a lot of excuses but here is the truth.

Geoff worked hard, and I mean damn hard with a dedicated team of local activists with a few visits from Westminster but this was not Eastleigh. This was not to be our battle ground, not a target seat this time around and Clegg et al did not appear with armies of Libdems busing in from across the country bank rolled by HQ and shadowy donors. This was a local battle led by a local candidate backed up by local activists.

This was always going to be a battle between the Tories and UKIP.

As for me. I am ecstatic about my 1% after all I did absolutely no canvassing or campaigning. Hoo was never a seat we could have won, nor did we have any presence out there. As many regular readers know my son was born on 10th October, had his first operation on 13th and I have been busy with my family settling in George. I'm amazed I got that many votes by doing nothing and I would like to thank everyone who did vote for me, next time will be definitely different.

The two great stories to come out of this election was firstly -

Britain first only got 56 votes. This, although depressing that they got more votes than some of the Independents is uplifting (I got more votes than them in one ward by election!!!) because even the Monster raving loony party did better than them! Truly a laughing stock.

The other is the results of the Green party. They fought a good campaign with a good candidate and scored a respectable fourth place with (1692 votes) in the parliamentary and local (314 votes). This was a great result for them and I've already sent my congratulations via Twitter.

Not to take anything away from them but the rise in support may be because they are now the non-UKIP protest party.  Ten years ago that was the Libdem party (though my Mum always voted Green!) but with the Coalition we've become part of the establishment so people tend to vote for a non-governmental party. If you don't want UKIP then the next best choice is Green. We could see some serious gains by the Greens next year if UKIP continue to develop in the towns.

I know a lot of this is all speculation bolstered with educated guesses but there is so much that could happen that at this moment in time (with four hours sleep) I'm not prepared to tie my colours to the mast until February or even April.

I will however close with a warning however to the other parties. The results of last night belay how strong we are in our wards, getting rid of the Libdems in Medway is going to be a tough proposition.

Cllr Tolhurst and Medway Knockers

Cllr Tolhurst

I had the (mis)fortune to sit through the debate on the future of rtochester airport a few months ago. I won't go into the detail of the debate but there was something that sparked an emotion that was not frustration or anger.

It was confusion.

Councillor Kelly Tolhurst (con) gave a very rousing speech in defence of her party's plans, by far the best argument I had heard from any of the Tories that night. Councillor Jarrett had defended the position with all the airs and graces of a bison negotiating it's way out of a liquidiser and Councillor Chitty was as convincing as Adolf Eichman's defence top that of with... sorry I am digressing.

Councillor Tolhurst argued that as a local girl and local business owner she was proud of Medway and of the airport.

There came the phrase that Councillor Jarrett had used in the past.

Those that criticised were Medway Knockers who sought to have a go at any good that was in Medway and undermine my attempt to make it better.

This made me think back to other eras of History where anyone who questioned orders or government decisions were termed "Unpatriotic" "Rebels" or "defeatist" often followed by punitive measures.

It is true that there are those who say No to everything the ruling party say or support - that is the Labour Party.

I was born in Gillingham, I had family here and stayed at my Grandparent's every weekend for many years.

I have lived here since 2007, I was married here, my children were both born here and next year my eldest, Sophie, will go to school here. Hopefully this is enough to qualify me as a resident rather than someone who has just turned up.

However I too was (at least) once referred to as a Medway Knocker for daring to speak out against the City status bid against the Status Quo - Worse yet I, and the party I belong too took action for those who didn't agree with the bid and were ignored by the ruling council.

We were labelled Medway Knockers even though our motivations were for the good of Medway.

The same is true for the Airport. THere are quite a few concerned residents who live near the airport who have safety concerns and others who see the £4.5 Million price tag and balk at the investment whilst services are cut and roads unrepaired. Others are more concerned about the Conservatives "consultation" process - which if it is anything like the selling of the care homes a couple of years ago, will be a simple exercise in futility and because they legally have to do it and their minds are already made up.

Pigeon holing and profiling is sp,etjomg we are all guilty of and at times we can be correct in our assumptions and quietly smug.

It is dangerous and either politically naive/ stupid or deliberately dismissive.

I don't think Cllr Tolhurst is any of these. Her statement was very passionate and angry in the face of Labour opposition so I'd notch this one up to the heat of the moment.

But you should watch out for the Conservative group and their, dare I say it, Liberal usage of the term!

Full Council, Rochester airport, theatre, waste and local politics

Thursday night I went to the theatre. I wasn't watching a musical or Shakespeare or even or one of those modern ones where everyone speaks Dutch and it turns out that lead character is actually a moose. Unfortunately I was at Medway Full Council meeting.

It was awfully entertaining and a member of Democratic services showed me to my seat. I was nervous as I had a question to ask with a supplementary etched out if the answer failed to hit the right point.

The pageantry began on time when we were upstanding for the gold mace, officers and the Mayor and Deputy Mayor. All took their place at the table overlooking the Councillors and the audience quickly followed by opening prayers.

The whistle blew and kick off began with a short debate on the length of Public questions. Vince Maple, leader of the Labour group, argued for 45 minutes instead of the usual 30 due to the number who had come or until we got to question 25 so everyone got to ask at least one. It took enough time for three questions to reach a consensus and then it began. After the preliminaries it got to the public questions.

Up stepped the villains of the piece; Cllrs Chitty and Jarrett. They quashed repeated questions and concerns about the development of Rochester airport. Cllr Chitty has shifted all safety concerns to the CAA and swatted away safety concerns by saying that they would look at the safety measures fully as part of a crash investigation. Cllr Jarrett conducted himself in a boorish manner akin to Herman Göring with refusals to repeat himself and answering with blunt disregard to the situation. At this early stage I could tell that no matter what anyone else thought or said.

The Audience got to participate too with traditional calls of "Oh no its not!"
As well as new ones like;

"Utter Crap!" (my favourite) and "Have you read it?!" referring to a particular safety report that Cllr Chitty seems to be ignoring.

Then it was my turn. Clutching my scribbled notes I stepped up before the bench and tried to steel myself with the Anglo-Germanic Sams stubbornness and belligerence. I was not here for political reasons but first and fore most as a concerned parent.

Cllr Mike O'Brien answered my question politely and concisely and in the manner I should have expected but with the added sting that the 40% cut figure I had been lead to believe was true was in fact false. (proper blogpost will follow when I receive the written answer.)

"Do you have a supplementary question Mr Sams?"

My mouth dry, my notes irrelevant and my resolve crumbling into full retreat I stared at the microphone for what seemed an eternity before shaking my head and fleeing back to my seat mentally berating my cowardice.

The back and forth restarted and when the 45 minutes were up a further debate was had as to whether or

not they could just press ahead and get question 24 and 25 done and with much heaving and sighing it was agreed.

Cllr Chambers' report

When this was all dealt with and some of the public drifted away Cllr Chambers rose to his feet and like Chancellor Palpatine gave his report, soft and gentle, barely audible in the public gallery but full of barbs and excuses - It isn't our fault the schools were rated badly it is because Ofsted moved the goal posts! It is the press only reporting the negative things on us - we're doing a good job really...

Vince Maple spoke well and welcomed Commrades Stamp and Cooper to the mix and spoke scathingly of Tory failings on sure starts and waste on Rochester airport when other services were in danger. Clearly he was very much the hero of the piece.

Cllr Juby spoke briefly agreeing on some points with Cllr Chambers and disagreeing on others but the real limelight was being reserved for Cllr Jarrett's return.

A couple of sly swipes at Cllr Stamp for defecting (again) and continued bluster that impressed no one and made him no more friends in the audience but to be honest I don't think he cares.

Other bit part players came on with Cllr Stamp whining that Cllr Jarrett was making cheap political and personal shots at his expense which gained at least two scoffs from the audience (one being me, get a sense of humour or some thicker skin Andy, as my sister would say "get over yourself"). Cllr Osborne got up and, though I agreed with most of what he said, channelled the party political broadcast. He spoke like an air raid siren droning on and on and addressing the audience more than the opposition in a style that sounded like a party rally or hustings event rather than full council and it washed like a wave over pretty much everyone with no effect.

I admit that I don't know much about what is going on with the airport, I have been to busy worrying about my own problems and the Nursery situation that almost stopped my wife going back to work. However as a layman watching I thought Cllr Murray's amendments to slow agreeing on the future of the airport until after the consultation was finished was a good one. In the past the Council have been accused of holding consultations because they had to and that a decission had already been made. Such was an accusation about the Care homes like Nelson's court where it was pushed through and assurances have been found to be built on sand. Having seen Cllr Jarrett's and Chitty's performances on Thursday I think it is already a done deal no matter what the residents of the Davis estate (who live under the flight path) think or what the rest of us who have had services cut think of the £4.4m that is being allocated to this. Cllrs Cooper (lab), Juby (ld), Gilroy (Lab) Griffiths (lab) and others spoke at length about the services that could benefit with this money especially the elderly and children. Cllr Stamp argued that the Strand that is used by thousands a year could have the sea defences repaired (having fallen into the sea and are dangerous) and the whole area spruced up or a hundred people could benefit from the new airport improvements. Both opposition parties were united and voted in favour but the Tory administration shrugged and voted it down.

I had drifted off into my own world not long after that but Cllr Tollhurst's (con) defence of the airport plans woke me up. She was very passionate about it and condemning the Labour group for what happend some fifteen years ago and their aims to still concrete it over. She argued that if you were against it then you were "Knocking Medway" and we should be proud of the airport - I left not long afterwards somewhat confused and cross.

I've spent time asking myself if I really want to be elected to this theatre and as yet I still haven't found a really compelling answer yet. The only thing I keep coming back to is that things must change. I saw very little representation of the people of Medway there last night. A lot of the bit parts did, some of the leads such as Vince Maple did, probably under all the hot air and party bluster, Cllr Osborne did maybe, Cllr Juby and Smith spoke of it too but the top two or three Conservatives I... I just couldn't see it. They seem to be bulldozing ahead with the scheme and that is it, they know what is best and we will have to agree and see that they're right - yet again just like the bus station, Medway tunnel etc... etc...