My wager on the Brexit referendum

With the announcement that the UK is to hold a referendum all the political parties are drawing up lines.

The Liberal Democrats are united as part of the IN choice and will be joined (eclipsed) by elements from the Tories and Labour against UKIP, George Galloway and elements of Labour and the Tories.

For me it is a no brainer and the EU membership offers vast opportunities if we led and tried to reform it rather than follow the UKIP line of voting "No" to everything if they turn up at all. Also with my belief structure a united Europe with a strong Germany at the heart is always an appealing notion!

Any way I won't try and sway your vote (just yet) as this isn't today's scope.

My big question is why are we IN parties going to bother? Brexit will win hands down.

I caught a few minutes of Murnighan earlier and someone was comparing the two line ups and suggested the Out camp needed to work on their image and that got me thinking....

Yes, George Galloway (possibly the most hated person in British politics by politicians) is a liability, yes there will be infighting by Tories and Labour unhappy with being on the same platform and then there is the UKIP scion which no one wants to openly admit working with.

Ultimately though their disunity and infighting will not damage their campaign at all as the vote is all about the issue not how they go about it.

For years the British press has been filling their headlines with stories of Europe with not all of them true, after all stories of the EU investing in community projects, forming international police task forces to combat major crimes or getting rid of those pesky data roaming fees just doesn't sell papers as blowing up little stories into chaos.

In the last fifteen years I've seen British sovereignty under threat more times than in the fifty preceding years. We've had X million Poles, X million Romanians, X many Hungarians and now a wave of countless ISIL terrorists are coming via Greece and Turkey disguised as refugees all granted citizenship by Germany and allowed to come here to steal our jobs and benefits! The EU have attacked our Chocolate, our bananas need straightening, our laws, our way of life and their courts (which are separate to the EU) have over ridden the decisions of our judges on our crimes etc... Bastards.

Brexit is seen as the only way to stop these countless waves and raise the drawbridge guaranteeing British people their money and jobs for hard working Britons (Though I look forward to the waves of former unemployed fruit picking or manning the grills at MacDonald's), make Britain Great again and restore sovereignty to the country before returning it to its former glory.

There is such a web of half and untruths to fight through and deep seated fears that ultimately the "In" campaign have a veritable mountain to climb and the victory we're all smugly thinking isn't as achievable as we think (though I pray that it will be) and come the end of June we'll be saying good-bye to our European buds and isolating ourselves further.

This is all before you say "The Lib-" (usually when doors close or interest is lost). Farrage still has a lot of support from grass roots who think he can do no wrong.

I fear that it is so unachievable that I'm close to asking why bother? It isn't like the plucky Rebellion vs. the Empire with its Death Star - it's the same number of fighters vs five a Death Stars and a fleet of Stardestroyers... 

So confident am I in my defeatist prediction that I will make this wager - *if* the UK votes to stay In I will put in the Acknowledgments of my next book; "Thanks to Nigel & George for pulling a Porkins" 

Come on Britain... It's worth voting "In" for that!

Nick should not have gone against Nigel

Yesterday I renewed my Libdem membership again. I still have mixed feelings about some things but I do believe that we have a good record in Government and have achieved some great things that have benefited many working families like mine.

I also have mixed feelings about Nick as leader. Sometimes I find myself in despair of the things that we have signed up to and think that Nick should show more backbone and stand up for what he/we believe in but then I see him speak at conference, the news or listen to Call Clegg and I'm immediately back on side, there is definitely something charismatic and down to earth about Nick when he talks unlike the seemingly out of touch Etonian Cameron (A bit harsh I know but the way he is portrayed) and the tainted Ed Miliband whose role in the Brown regime has been white washed over but not forgotten. There is a new guy on the scene and he is dangerous, it is Nigel Farage.

I don't agree with Nigel or his party on a lot of things and I think some of their reported views are dangerous for society and this country. I fear the demonising of immigrants can lead to all kinds problems and stoke fires, fires that like minded people in the BNP would enjoy starting. The problem is UKIP is a lot more mainstream.

When you hear BNP you are immediately reviled and even though some might agree that Europe is a problem and there is an open door for "Johnny Foreigner" coming into the country deep down you know that they are racist with links to street mobs. UKIP is a similar sounding voice but is more rational. Instead of saying Get the foreigners out it is saying that immigration is a problem that needs to dealing with. Same point, different approach.

Farage's appeal to the average bod on the street is that he is pointing out all the things that we know are problems. The EU has mass problems with the way it is run and is far from perfect, the people of this country need a referendum to finally put this issue to bed one way or the other, immigration has been a concern for almost a decade and none of the big three parties have successfully dealt with it. The people of this country have been bombarded by lies and exaggeration about the European Union by newspapers like the Express and Mail for decades including the infamous "Your Bananas are to curved" story. He comes over as a man of the people seemingly speaking the views of the majority or indeed ideas that they can get behind or understand from the media - much in the same way that Nick did back in 2010 before he seemingly sold his soul to Cameron (again as portrayed in the media.).

With Nick's record and the accusations of pledge breaking and being under hand he will never win when it comes to arguing with Farage over how many laws are made for this Country in Brussels. The nation fears the worse and who are they going to believe?

Is it the guy who is seemingly confirming your worse fears and the stuff you sorta knew already from what you read in the papers or the guy who broke his pledge to the Students and who got the Tories into power bringing us fraking, bedroom tax, cuts and job losses through the Public sector? Nick can twist and turn with Farage and present facts but you cannot argue with the image of a man who is portrayed as talking sense and of the people when you yourself are considered a career politician who hasn't had a real job and is considered to be fast and lose with the truth.

What makes it worse is that if you hit the Twitterverse you see fellow Libdems saying; Didn't Nick do well? Didn't Farage look awful and like a zealot?

This is true, I thought he looked out of his depth and struggling in the face of the facts that Nick was presenting and playing down the alarmist stories and suggestions of a new City the size of Manchester being needed by 2019 (that is approximately homes for 502,900 (in the city and metropolitan area in 2011) people from Europe according to the accusation). The polls don't lie though, people are more inclined to believe Nigel with him coming out on top both times.
He has confessed he doesn't want power merely to bring the people of the UK to a vote and that is attracting so much support for common people who feel they should have a say, a say their parents and Grandparents never got in the 70s.

I should reiterate that I do agree with Nick on Europe and that we are better off in and working to reform from within rather than being powerless and sitting on the fence complaining about it. I also dislike Farage, I personally don't trust him and disagree with a lot of what his party says about things and believe that a lot of what they are doing is scare mongering and stoking fears to achieve their own political machinations.

I also think that although to some extent the debate was needed and it was good to see the differing opinions, it was also a bad idea. It has given far too much air time to a man who represents a party that has members with somewhat out dated (at best) and dangerous (as extreme) views about things and society in this country, a party that has at last count - zero MPs in parliament. He should not have been indulged on National Television and radio like this. A lot more people will have been attracted to his cause or party based on his performances rather than actual belief's and politics.

I also think Nick was wrong to go on personally. Like I said, I have a lot of time and admiration for Nick and he was one of my main inspirations and indeed role models for getting into politics and joining the party but his public image is not a good one. There was a reason (albeit petty) that Ed Miliband would not share a platform with Nick on equal marriage, he has become a political pariah and is considered almost a bogey man, a living embodiment of a man who has sold out his morals and beliefs for a ministerial car and office - which I still believe is untrue, mostly, depending on the day. The public believe the worse and that has come out of these polls leaving Farage all the more stronger.

We've even had people on the doorstep in Gillingham (thankfully in a Labour street!!!) telling us they are going to vote UKIP in 2015 because they're tired of the other parties and that Farage talks a lot of sense!!!!

All I cling to is that with declining numbers of people turning out to vote means hopefully less votes for UKIP - or they divide the Tory vote allowing more Libdems on Medway Council!

Campaigning for Europe in Gillingham

Catherine Bearder on the Streets of Gillingham

Last Saturday the Medway Liberal Democrats hit the streets of Gillingham - but this was not an average street canvassing or leafleting it was a special occasion.

The upcoming elections for the European Parliament are exceptionally important and as we are the only party of In and in full support of Europe we had to hit the streets and talk about the excellent work the party have achieved but we weren't doing it alone.

Standing with local party stalwarts like Councillor Diana Smith and Councillor Geoff Juby as well as regular activists and newbies was current standing MEP Catherine Bearder and candidate Antony Hook.

Whilst Nick Clegg has been standing up to Nigel Farage and the generalisations and lies about the European Union we took to the streets to try and dispel the myths on our doorstep.

There was quite some interest with many people drifting by on the bright sunny day and taking leaflets and others stopping to talk to our candidate and representative about specific issues like crime, immigration, economy and jobs.

The European Union is not the most perfect organisation in the world, there are a lot of questions that need answering and reform that needs to be done BUT the only way to reform it is to be inside it. I am a fan of Gillingham FC but I have serious questions about how the club is run and of the Chairman Paul Scally. The only way to have an input on this though is to be a shareholder - so I sit at home and mutter to myself. Should the UK leave the EU it will have to deal with them in the same way that Switzerland and Norway do but without any input into the trading agreements or how they work - so we will be sat at home muttering to ourselves.

The EU also provides money to worthy causes and projects including money for projects in Medway and regeneration of the Dock yard as well as charities - who is to say that our government, who have cut services and make massive efficiency savings would still invest in them as well?

It was a privilege to meet Catherine and Antony and to watch them talking with ease with the public in Gillingham High street and talk passionately about their work in the field and what the EU has to offer and the people we spoke to were impressed too.

UKIP target Medway?

Are UKIP's sights on Medway?

Over the last few days we've witnessed something that a few years ago would have been considered the

waking dreams of Nigel Farage and his inner circle. Eastleigh was the first warning flare but this round of local elections have shown the possibility of them making serious gains in the future.

One possible site is Medway.

The current Conservative council has done some good work over the last decade or so and has some good councillors.

However they also stand accused of some awful cockups. Massive overspends on capital projects like the bus station, the Medway test and ofsted fiascoes, a recent budget that was so hurriedly and ineptly put together that it displayed the wrong information and even failed to balance, accusations of not consulting or providing adequate safety on the Isle of Grain, taxation and cuts that are causing severe anguish and debt amongst residents.

It would seem likely that an opposition party could make real headway against them. Indeed Labour do seem intent on making serious inroads into the Local scene and stand to make some serious gains in certain areas of Medway, often using the national problems as a way of catching peoples eyes. However there is a vast swathe of people who do not trust Labour still (mainly on National politics) and there are vast areas of Rainham, Wigmore, Hempstead and areas of Rochester who are true blue and wouldn't vote Labour BUT could turn to UKIP instead. Many high profile Conservatives could find themselves losing seats or votes being split by UKIP if their local party could get organised and funded properly.

The downside for them is that the Medway Local elections will be on the same day as the General Election of 2015. This could be detrimental to the UKIP vote as if they are a protest vote which many still think they may be, they will not see the same returns during the General election as people prefer to vote for the big two parties (maybe Libdem on a good day) but we will have to see.

On the General Election side I can't imagine them fielding a candidate against Mark Reckless who already embodies their anti European stance and I believe that Tracey Crouch is critical enough of the current EU contract and campaigning for reform so she too should be safe especially combined with her good work ethic and generally liked by her constituents. Indeed Mr Farage offered both Tracey and Mark positions in UKIP should they wish to defect when they voted "Eurosceptically" back in 2011. Rehman Chishti however seems broadly pro-European and not generating as much interest as he did prior to 2010 and could be a target seat especially as there are rumblings from Conservative supporters that he has been too supportive of the Coalition and a reported lukewarm reception to Paul Clarke's announcement as Labour candidate. Will voters be swayed by another party? It is all conjecture at this stage but food for thought.

There is genuine scope for UKIP to do well in the Medway towns given the right amount of organisation etc but obviously we will have to wait and see how things develop and transpire. I am sure that some members of the Conservative Council will be watching things very carefully.

As a Liberal Democrat member and campaigner I'm certainly going to keep my eyes open and watching things develop.

Medway Libdems celebrate Eastleigh win

Mike Thornton MP and some of the team

Excellent news from Eastleigh - Mike Thornton has been returned as a candidate for the Liberal Democrats despite the Huhne and Rennard scadals.

Local Libdem Council group leader Geoff Juby had this to say:

 The general public have recognised the hard work that the Liberal Democrats have done, not only on Eastleigh borough council but also within the Coalition. We have delivered tax breaks to everyone and dulled the Tory cuts for millions of hard working families.

We are delighted for our candidate and glad that the hard work put in by all our dedicated members has been rewarded. This shows that the British Public have not been fooled by the adverse press coverage the Libdems have been subjected to over the past weeks and that the people of Eastleigh have confidence that in Mike Thornton they will have a hard working member of parliament.

This was always going to be a tough bi-election with a straight fight between the two Coalition parties. As their two party machines have printed on many occasions - Labour can't win here, and having lived in the Eastleigh/Winchester area for some eight years I can concur.

Had the Tories won it we would have shown exactly how much trouble the Libdems were in nationally. Locally there is a Libdem council with hard working councillors so for there to be a swing to the Blues would have been somewhat disastrous.

It can be argued (somewhat successfully) that the two Media stories pumped out - One that I saw re-posted by many Conservative MPs (including ex MP Louise Mensch) that the Libdems wanted to tax your grandparent's jewellery - which was of course nonsensical, and of course the Lord Rennard scandal, were pumped out on purpose. Indeed there has been some real bile published in the Daily Mail as well as scathing comments in the Tory Red tops recently. However the swing was not enough for the Conservatives.

It shows that the public, as Geoff said, it is validation of all the hard work that the Liberal Democrats have done in Parliament and of the benefits to hard working families including cutting income tax, pupil premiums, making student loans easier to pay back over a longer period of time as well as making university easier for those from a low income  background (borne out in this year's UCAS figures) and many more social policies to make Britain fairer. We are still defined against the background of Conservative cuts and George Osbornes's economic policy which is now beginning to fail.

The big surprise for me, and indeed for Maria Hutchins, is that UKIP have come in second with 11,571 votes (some 2000 behind the Libdems and 1000 more than the Tories with a 19.3% swing from the Libdems!)

Geoff also outlined:

This was so obviously a protest vote against all the main parties. If any lessons are to be learnt I think that they have to apply to politicians of all parties as has been shown repeatedly over the past few years.

Indeed it does show that people are discontent with the big three  parties and that, prior to 2010 when the Liberals were the protest vote, the rise of UKIP can be put in the protest vote.

If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won.What happened here in Eastleigh was not a freak result. Something is changing. People are sick and tired of having three social democrat parties that are frankly indistinguishable from each other

I think he's definitely right and as Geoff said, politicians of all parties (especially the Conservatives) are going to have to address this trend. Who knows, the next government could be a Conservative-UKIP coalition!

Any way - I'd like to add my voice to the other Congratulations to Mike Thornton MP for his victory last night as well as to the teams of Libdem activists, MPs and Lord Ashdown who hit the streets of Eastleigh in the proceeding weeks - I've seen the tweets and blogposts, you guys worked really hard and I'm just sorry I couldn't get down there to help.

Nigel Farage offers UKIP spot to Reckless and Crouch

Mark Reckless and Tracey Crouch

Tucked away in the "Letters to the Editor" section of today's Medway Messenger is a letter from Nigel Farage of UKIP with an interesting offer. It is the same offer that he made to any Conservative MP in last night's Evening Standard.

The letter in the Messenger congratulates Tracey Crouch and Mark Reckless for their stance on Monday and that they put the interests of the country and their constituents first before career and party line. This is indeed backed up by some to the "Webchat" in the next column which I will come too at the end.

Mr Farage also offers a spot for the MPs in UKIP.

By staying in the Conservative party, MPs such as Mr Reckless and Miss Crouch are fighting a losing battle and if they wished to join a party who believes as he does, that the people should decide their own future, he should join the UK Independence Party.

Most of the letter is actually directed at Mark Reckless, no doubt Mr Farage is aware that Miss Crouch's voting record in the House of Commons has been for greater integration with Europe according to the Public Whip. 

Personally I cannot imagine either MP defecting to UKIP. I understand that there is a certain disquiet and even anger at the Europe decision in some quarters of the Conservative party but mass defections seem unlikely, especially from a long standing Conservative Councillor and member like Mark Reckless.

As I mentioned the KM has also printed a couple of comments supporting them both;

Congratulations to both of them for listening to their constituents and not being bullied by the PM and the Whips. For those that say this is not the right time for a referendum, can they please tell us when that time will be. -Trevor

There has also been stiff criticism for Rehman Chishti MP for Rainham and Gillingham for his support of the Government line.

I see Reh Chishti toed the party line again. - Jon

And more importantly by former resident and esteemed fellow Blogger Alan W Collins and Conservative party member.

In politics, your constituents come before your party and you career. I have moved from Medway so will not have a vote in 2015, when Gillingham and Rainham is likely to lose a Tory stronghold and gain a Labour Stronghold. I hope Mr Chishti knows how hard he needs to persuade the constituents he betrayed that it won't happen again if he wants to regain the trust.
Strong words. Personally Mr Chishti voted the way I would have wanted him to, siting that it is better to concentrate on Home issues first and a referendum later but I also know that the "Out" and anti EU voices are louder with strong passion. I respect their opinion and more importantly respect Miss Crouch and Mr Reckless for their bravery in defying the Government and representing their constituents. It was a tough call, one I don't think I could make.