Speculation over Aviation Policy and Justine Greening's departure

So Justine Greening has been shuffled out of the cabinet. Even before she has cleared out her desk the media and pundits have begun speculating what this means. Like an episode of Dawson's creek or from my premarital love life everyone is sat about over thinking everything, suggesting hypothesises and second guessing every tiny detail. 

 A couple of months ago the opposition were trying to convince us all that Boris island or the Hoo peninsula scheme were the only options and that those evil Tories would force it upon us - Those blaggards! 

 Then in recent weeks Heathrow expansion has become the sticking point and aren't those dastardly Tories are going to U-turn on an election pledge. Then on the weekend there were suggestions of an airport Northwest London.  

 Now with Greening gone and the virtual unknown of McLoughlin getting the brief the spot light is going back on Heathrow. 

 I think it is time for us all to be honest...  

 No one knows where this new airport/expansion will be even if there is to be one! 

 Let's stop guessing and stabbing in the dark and wait for this consultation. When it finally comes, it will be the chance for ALL the possibilities to be weighed and debated and for everyone to have their say. 

 My personal opinion, and it is simply that and I don't say it's anything more, is that Ms Greening went because she wasn't impartial and that whatever the outcome opposition would call foul play.

This consultation is a chance to lay out Aviation policy and to finally answer the question of capacity in the country. Getting rid of internal flights in favour of HS2, moving freight capacity onto smaller airports or fields, a better distribution system that could free up space, finally abandoning the slap-dash space filling or quick fixes that have been successive Government's solutions. It will also be the time to bring to the table the reasons why an Estuary airport won't work r be so detrimental to the environment. Lets stop fearing the Consultation and work with it to achieve the aims we want. 

It would be wrong to rule anything out but it would also be wrong to say anything is definite. Lets be adult about this.

As the artillery barrage and scare mongering continues from different groups pertaining to know what is going to happen and what the Government is up too and the inevitability yadda yadda yadda it is the cool hard logic that states no one knows and I shall save all of my ammunition for the Consultation. People will be less tired of listening to the constant drone of noise and take it in the manner it is intended. Until then we should remember the wise words of Baz Luhrmann who once said;
worrying about something is as effective as solving a problem as chewing bubblegum - and wait for the consultation instead of constantly seeing signs in every perceived and real in/action.

Boris Island - Clearer interpretation of events?

This weekend I was trawling the blogosphere, trying to bring myself up to speed again and see what was going on.

I was most disappointed to read the following quotation;

It seems once again that those with a limited understanding of local history are trying to distort the Labour position on the Estuary Airport and claim we are 'scaremongering' the local public.

This was clearly directed at me for my previous post.

It is true I'm not a professional Politician, indeed I'm a trained historian, mainly of the Red-coated or Jackboot clad parts of history. However I was writing my Master's degree dissertation on Airfield and airports effects on local communities with a large section on the Cliffe proposals that was going on at the time. My Grandfather kept me really will informed and sent me all manner of documents and news reports!

As a non- politician sitting in the shallow end I have to be careful what I write which means I read up thoroughly before I write anything.

Boris Island, being the only thing that preoccupies the local media and politicos at the moment means I've been able to keep abreast of the situation.

Let me demonstrate by tackling the extensive list on the post to prove that there is scare mongering and an almost paranoid state that those dastardly Tories are going to screw us over.

Tory MPs opposing Labour's visual campaign and favouring a low budget campaign - Well that's just good fiscal sense. After all at the time such a campaign would have been a knee jerk reaction to something that was nowhere near certain, indeed there was to be a mayoral election before anything became "Concrete". At a time when the Conservative administration in Medway was (and is) being heavily scrutinised and criticised for its over expenditure on vanity projects whilst at the same time cutting services and staff, a big campaign would have been a waste. Now however a larger campaign is necessary and is now underway.

Boris Johnson is London's mayor. He wants what is best for his city and its residents and has acted somewhat independently over the project, much to the embarrassment of the Parliamentary Conservative party - a prime example of a local party crossing swords with a national party. On paper a Hub airport would be fantastic for London and indeed for Britain's economy and jobs - which is why George Osborne and others are interested in such a project. Also, on paper, the Estuary is a reasonable place to put it as it has a limited effect on land value and houses. However there is the immense environmental damage.
These backer and the dire straits of the economy have forced the Government's hand and when added to the aviation industry's concern that we're rapidly reaching current capacity. It would be easy to just slam the door and ignore what is happening but this Government is doing the responsible thing and opening up the forum for debate.
Or should a Chancellor of the Exchequer not be looking into ways to boost the economy and business within the nation?

A consultation may also expose all of the natural frailties of the Estuary airport, the SS Robert Montgomery, the unexploded ordinance out on the Peninsula, the fog and all the other problems and finally rule it out as a possibility once and for all and should be welcomed rather than seen as the ultimate GREEN light for construction.

The appointment of Justine Greening as Minister for transport looks problematic, as yes; she is against further expansion of Heathrow, as are the Liberal Democrats. This is why the Coalition agreement (on top of both parties Manifestos) states there will be no third runway in this parliament. (Although that doesn't rule out laying the plans for future governments to put in place.) Though her appointment doesn't automatically mean that there will be an Estuary airport and as a rising star within the party she was soon to receive a top position and with the reshuffle after Doctor Fox's exit from Defence, Transport (big enough to be important but not that important) was there. I admit that taking two months to respond to the open letter was not cricket and should have been much swifter BUT as I wrote at the time she is right  not meet with local council leaders about the project. As the project will be going to consultation it would be inappropriate to meet with anyone protest group or council for fear of vexing the others. How would it look in Heathrow or Gatwick if the minister turned up BEFORE the consultation and said to the Medway Towns:
Nah it's alright you guys are safe

It is better to deal with the duly elected local MPs who, after all represent the people of Rochester & Strood, Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham & Rainham as well. To be fair they have continually fought this with meetings with the PM, the Minister and questions at PMQS... Why doubt the duly elected representatives just because they too are Conservatives?

A HUB airport within the UK would be fantastic for the country and so an open consultation is absolutely necessary to look into ALL the options. There is no point panicking and scaring other people when absolutely nothing is set in stone. Heck, this morning the press are going on about the likelihood of expanding Heathrow over Boris Island so what does that mean?
What is easy to forget is that there are similar "NO" campaigns in other areas and local Politicians desperate not to let Central Government build a bloody great airport in their back gardens and residents who really don't want it either and the Minister cannot be at the beck and call of all of these groups. Let the Consultation happen and kick in the campaign then with the facts about the environment and the ordinance etc etc...

I know that William Hill have slashed the odds of construction however they are the same people who had Germany as odds on winners of Euro 2012 which I am saddened to say we lost. I'm not a betting man, nor am I are rich man but I am so convinced that I pledge £30s of money I don't have to go to the Demelza House, a local charity, IF this Government consultation gives the Go-ahead for Boris Island or Isle of Grain HUB.

Having spent my whole life over thinking EVERY detail and certain events whilst extrapolating every last detail and blowing things out of all proportion I can understand how the alternative conclusions were reached, especially if you throw in a distrust/hatred of the Conservatives into the mix.
Now, I'm not a Conservative, I'm a proud Liberal Democrat who has had disappointments with our Coalitions partners and disagreements with the Conservative Council that I have aired on line. But if you take a deep breath and think about what is going on there is no real concrete evidence that they are planning a HUB and that they, like a responsible party of Government are preparing to solve a particularly sticky question and look at all the possibilities.

I take quite a bit of umbrage at being dismissed as having "limited understanding" of something I clearly have a grip on and a fair alternative point of view backed up by facts and opinions in just the same way and have followed this story for some time. I suppose, because I'm not a councillor, nor have a corresponding viewpoint it is easy to dismiss my arguments with a fair amount of condescension to the wider audience - whatever helps you sleep at night.

Airport expansion, Boris Island, local Labour & responsible politics

 

A Grain of truth in fears?

I've written a lot about Boris Island and the Grain hub over the last year or so. It is rarely out of the local news or Political scope for more than a week. Some one always has an opinion or Boris Johnson makes a remark or... Its tiring really.

One of the main themes of the writings though is Labour's interpretations of the events - as they are the most vocal group upon the subject.

What usually happens is there is an event or someone (usually a Conservative but more recently Dr Huppert Libdem MP for Cambridge) and suddenly the spin cycle begins and the shouts of:

TWO FACED TORIES!

or...

THEY'RE GOING TO BUILD A BLOODY GREAT AIRPORT OUTSIDE YOUR HOUSE!!!

but as I've tried to maintain; Nothing has been decided yet

According to today's article in the Telegraph newspaper Justine Greening may find herself shuffled out of the cabinet and into another senior position. In doing so the Government can look at expanding Heathrow as a stop gap but put it in place to happen after 2015 so as not to rupture the Coalition agreement (again) or break election pledges.

Heathrow has its draw backs with angry residents, pressure groups and environmental problems too. Other economists will argue that Heathrow expansion is a mere stopgap and a proper HUB will be needed or lose out on trade. Boris will argue that Mr Cameron has pussy-footed around it and that a chance has been lost.

The Conservatives may be playing the long game and hoping that it will either be Labour's problem in 2015 or they will have a majority and not have to worry about losing a host of seats in Kent and Essex or worry about a rebellious group of local MPs joining up with the Libdems to vote the issue down now. Who knows?

This, like so many other suggestions and extrapolations is mere conjecture and we'll just have to wait for the reshuffle.

There is NO certainty over this project, a hang over from Labour not shutting this down with the Cliffe proposals almost a decade ago.

This consultation will, I'm sure rule out the possibility of the site once and for all due to its many problems like bird strike, environmental and ecological damage etc etc...

But what if it doesn't? What if the Independent body find its a good site? To paraphrase a local Labour tweeter.

Well what if they do? There will still be room to fight it and our MPs will keep doing that backed up by our elected Councillors and environmental groups and charities. It will not be over by a long shot.

What needs to happen though is for the Opposition to stop making Political capital out of this.

Firstly there is the fear mongering. Preying on people's concerns and worries about a really serious subject and turning every sentence, every suggestion into a news worthy slogan with continued ravings that the airport is going ahead and that the Tories are out to betray us all. Its not right and its not what politics should be about.

Yes criticise the project, put pressure on the Government to think about what it is doing - that's what a good opposition does but don't do this, its childish.

Some poor sod of a councillor said a while back that he, personally wasn't opposed to Boris Island, I made a similar comment (along the lines that should it be good for the nation/economy is it really a bad thing?) both of us have been lambasted for it by Labour politicos. Is that fair? For someone's personal opinion on the matter?

Look every one they like the idea of Boris Island! BURN THE HERETIC!

Again - its not right.

Lets all be clear headed about this - lets approach this as adults and as Maria Eagles suggested: Take politics out of the equation and all of us unite against this project without the crap, point scoring and the mild hysteria.

Labour Flogging a dead horse on Referendum

This is of course my opinion and not necessarily the view of the Medway Libdems...

Some may have seen the Twittersphere alight this morning with a somewhat heated discussion on the notion of Boris Island between Cllr Osborne and myself.

No?

Well it dented my pool of calm and forced me to abandon my book (A clash of Kings by George R R Martin if anyone is interested.) and focus my thoughts on this.

First I should illuminate - A while ago Medway Labour put forward the notion of holding a local referendum on Popular opinion over Boris Island at a Full Council Meeting. As I understand from tweets from observers, what had been a well argued point became a bit of an Anti Tory rant by Cllr Osborne.

That aside the Council took a vote.

For the Referendum... Labour

Against the Referendum... Conservatives
                                        Independent Group
                                        Liberal Democrats.

Motion Failed.

Democracy is fickle and sometimes people vote against clearly good ideas i.e. AV...

But you have to respect the decisions however much you disagree.
I still believe the Government sale of Oregon was wrong. I believe the treaty with France rather than Germany before World War One was a mistake and I still believe AV is a better system than FPTP But I don't harp on  about it.

The fact is a referendum would have no effect what so ever.

To quote one a tweet from this morning:- Let People say No and send a mssg (sic) to Cam and Clegg. No means No.

Well let us examine this...

Firstly, Clegg has already said No. In fact the Liberal Democrat and Green Parties are the only two parties that have been consistent in their stance against the whole project in Parliament.

Secondly, should the Medway Messenger's headline from the other week about George Osborne's email inbox being filled with "No" emails, coupled with the letter to Justine Greening by the Council, Opinion in the local press, the representations from the three elected MPs to the Minister... I fail to see how a referendum would add to these.
A Government willing to ignore all these Representations would also clearly ignore a referendum. Clearly the local opinion as a whole is "No" already?

Also Local Opinion won't matter if National outweighs it. After all if You were Prime Minister and a project needed to go through would you side with the many or the few?

Let's be honest...

This is then added to the Environmental impact, the fact the Thames Estuary area is being protected by the Government. Could they quickly then ignore that?

Finally... I revert back to the Yellow Nosed bastard points mentioned here and here (which still haven't been answered by the way) and to the question left unanswered from this morning...

WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR IT?????

The Medway tax payer is already facing service cuts, including to Elderly care, sure start emergency funds cut, they cannot be asked to have their already stretched money spent answering the question we already claim to know the answer to and tell the Government yet again something we've already told them several times...
I don't think you could justify the expense. If there is another source for the money then please answer the question....

The motion failed, the Council can't justify the expense, everyone knows local opposition to it, let it go.

Justine Greening's response to Medway

Well, it has arrived. The long expected response to Medway Council's letter pleading the case against any airport in the Thames Estuary or on the Isle of Grain signed by the leaders of the four main Political parties in the council (Con, Lab, Libdem and Independent). It only took 7-8 weeks and is written in typical management speech which I will attempt to translate using my experience in middle management and civil service.

Dear Councillor Chambers,

Thank you for your letter of 18th January 2012 sent on behalf of all political groups from Medway Council requesting a meeting to discuss your concerns about recent media reports of proposals for a consultation on an airport in the Thames Estuary area.

Pretty standard managerial intro telling you why you wrote in the first place but generally could be translated as "Hello, thanks for writing."

I would like to reassure you that the Government has not made any decisions on the need for major new airport capacity in the South-east, and would only make such decisions on the basis of robust evidence and following consultation. As you know, the Government is developing a long-term strategy for a sustainable future for aviation. We need to provide a framework which supports economic growth and addresses aviation's environmental impacts. We issued an aviation policy s coping document last year calling for evidence on a range of strategic issues and received approximately 600 responses; and some parties have put forward proposals for a new airport in the Thames Estuary.

As the Chancellor said in his Autumn Statement, the Government is committed to maintaining the UK's aviation hub status. As part of this commitment, we will commission a call for evidence on the options ensuring that the UK maintains its internationally competitive hub connectivity.

We've received suggestions from many quarters as to where a new airport should be, including the Thames Estuary (Obviously it cannot be hidden that that has been put forward.) however the Government has not made any concrete decisions as we have had pressure from environmentalists and the Liberal Democrats not to as well. We are also under pressure that the UK's airport capacity will be full within the next few decades and so in the interest of economy and status we must look at airports soon.
 SO we will be consulting on the issue taking into consideration the economic and environmental views.

We will publish the call for evidence alongside our consultation on a new Aviation Policy Framework in March. This is an important issue and we will consider a range of suggestions for how to maintain the UK's hub connectivity in a cost-effective and sustainable way.

We will be looking at this in the Nation's interest and gathering as much evidence as possible before making an informed decision that could go either way depending on this evidence. Although it must obviously be in the Nation's interest but be cost effective and have as small an environmental impact as possible.

In the meantime, we are pursuing a number of measures to get the most out of existing airport infrastructure in the South-east, including taking forward the recommendations of the South East Airports Task force, and reforming the economic regulation of airports to put passengers at the heart of the regulatory regime.

 We aren't making any rash decisions as this an important subject. We are looking at keeping air users in the loop and helping us make the right decisions that would benefit them as much as they benefit the local communities. It is going to be a long time until a new airport will be fully operational so we need to look at ways we can facilitate what we already have.

Unfortunately, the huge pressures on my diary mean that I am unable to offer a meeting to you at this time. However, as you may know, I met a number of Kent Members of Parliament last week- including Mark Reckless - who articulated to me some of the local concerns about future airport policy and planning which I know you share. I have agreed to meet them again later in the year for further discussions, once the draft aviation framework is published.

Thank you for taking time to write and for passing on the concerns of the people you represent.

Sorry, I'm not meeting you - it would be inappropriate and you're not important enough at this stage. I am dealing with your duly elected MPs ( Editorial; they just happen to be Conservatives and I'm sure this paragraph would say the same what ever party the MPs were in.) and will be liaising with them in the future as the consultation and planning proceeds.


It is a standard letter from a Minister or management position that seems to tell all and nothing at the same time and you have to read between the lines or guess at the meaning. My interpretation - and I don't pretend that I know the correct answer, is that the Government have truly no idea as to what will happen and are under pressure from environmentalists, Liberal Democrats in Parliament, Boris et al, aviation experts, local politicians from all over and campaign groups. All the opinions need to be collated and will be part of the consultation and a decision will be made in the Nation's interest.