|Osborne Vs Crouch in 2015|
This will make 2015 interesting - well it was before but...
This means Tristan will have to face Tracey Crouch.
The first Salvo was fired in the KM letter pagers a moth or so ago with the stinging rebuke along the lines of;
Whenever there is a vote that matters Tracey abstains.
(It is something I was and will write about in time, probably through my sabbatical but for the time being lets just leave it as the opening salvo.)
Political campaigns, like Military campaigns, are dependent on numbers and factors well beyond their control.
The first is the economy. Should things pick up, and I hope they will for all our sakes, then the Conservatives look to do very well in the next election. If it looks a little worse or there are continuous bad reactions to the cuts then irregardless of how good an MP Tracey has been she'll find herself in an up hill battle.
The second is Boundary reform. Tristan represents Luton & Wayfield that is marginally Labour. I'm sure he won't mind me telling you that it was a close run thing and I know how nervous he was watching the votes came in on the night. I remember the look of relief on his face when it came through and when we shook hands.
I should point out it was between him and the Conservatives, I lost quite convincingly coming right at the bottom!!!!
At present, the ward is part of Chatham & Aylesford but under the new Boundaries it will be moved to Gillingham & Rainham and substituted for Wigmore & Hempstead which are blue areas in local elections. Add in the fact that areas of Malling will also be brought into Tracey's constituency which by the numbers means it should become a safer seat.
This advantage will of course be wiped clear if the first factor goes horribly wrong and a knee jerk reaction will kick in.
Councillor Osborne will also be looking to silence critics in his campaign. Many critics online and within the opposition parties will be looking at his record and his blog with interest and keeping tabs on what he says, quick to poke holes in any argument. However, I'm sure he will be pointing at the Government's record rather than being able to openly attack Tracey's record. Personally I think Tracey is doing a good job and works hard for her constituency and has taken many stands for them in Westminster.
It is going to be interesting to say the least and one I hope to follow fairly closely... we've not picked our PPCs yet so you never know I may have a ring side seat!!!
(Seriously though, I'm really not going to run for Parliament...)
Also Happy Birthday to Tracey for today (24th July)